Thread by @brechtcastel

3.3M views for this video by @EuromaidanPress:

"American 🇺🇸 infantry fighting vehicles M2 Bradley are spotted in Poland 🇵🇱 [...] toward the Ukrainian border 🇺🇦. "

TRUE ✅ or FALSE ❌? Investigate! 🧵👇 1/...

#OSINT 🔎
#Verification 🎥
#GeoLocation 🌍
#HowToOSINT 🧐

@EuromaidanPress The exact location of the video is difficult to find due to the limited visual elements in the background. 😢

But it's admittedly plausible that the video was shot in Poland. How do we know this? 👇2/...

@EuromaidanPress On the locomotive we read PKP Cargo 🟨, which is the largest rail freight carrier in Poland 🇵🇱.

We find a picture of a PKP-locomotive with the same serial number ST44-1232 🟥.

The road sign in the video 🟩 corresponds to the Polish W9 sign for train signals. 3/...

@EuromaidanPress On the train, we can indeed see US armoured vehicles of the Bradley M2 type. ✅

Visual characteristics 🟨🟩🟥 between the video (left) and a photo of that type of armoured vehicle (right) match.

The type was confirmed by a military expert. 4/...

@EuromaidanPress On 5 January, US President Joe Biden 🇺🇸 announced that the United States, along with France and Germany, would deliver armoured vehicles to Ukraine.

That delivery would take place "in the near future", without further specification. 5/...

@EuromaidanPress More videos of US military vehicles being transported across Europe 🇪🇺 by train 🚆 have been circulating on social media in recent weeks. 👇

My colleague @Lotte_Lambrecht and I examined 15 of these videos. 📽️📽️ 6/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht Of 7 videos, we did manage to determine the exact location based on visual features in the footage (see map). 📍✅

We see them popping up in Germany 🇩🇪 (Soest and Herne) and Poland 🇵🇱 (Zielona Góra Główna, Niewodnica, Skierniewice (2) and Białystok).

Most trains run EAST. ➡️7/

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht Do they drive to Ukraine 🇺🇦? 🤔

We zoom in on a 🚂 that passed through the Polish cities of Skierniewice and Białystok.

The exact same order of the military vehicles tells us this is the same transport: we see the vehicles with the Red Cross logo 🟥 at the same place. 8/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht In Białystok, we see that the train slides through the picture from right to left. ⬅️

Looking at that spot via Google Streetview, we see that the train is thus heading northeast: not towards Ukraine 🇺🇦 (that would be southeast), but towards Lithuania 🇱🇹. 9/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht How can this be explained? 🤔

For that, we have to go back to where these US vehicles reached mainland Europe: the port ⛴️ of Vlissingen in the Netherlands 🇳🇱. 10/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht A US delivery of some 1275 army vehicles docked in the port of Vlissingen on 9 January.

The delivery, which included Bradley vehicles, is part of a 'regular rotation of troops'. 🪖

The vehicles departed for Poland 🇵🇱 and Lithuania 🇱🇹, the eastern flank of NATO territory. 11/..

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht How can we know if the armoured vehicles in the viral video are part of the changing of the guard in NATO member states Poland 🇵🇱 and Lithuania 🇱🇹?

Or whether they belong to the announced delivery to Ukraine 🇺🇦? 12/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht Both are Bradley M2s, but NATO forces have the version A3 (right) while the delivery to Ukraine is of the slightly older A2 (left).

The most obvious difference is the Commander's Independent Viewer (CIV) at the right rear 🟥 which is on the A3. It is NOT found on the A2. 13/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht So in our video, we see the Bradley M2A3 and that type is not supplied to Ukraine.

Moreover, we see platoon numbers 30, 32, 33 and 34 🟥🟨🟦🟩 painted on the vehicles in the video.

We see those same platoon numbers popping up on drone footage of NATO troops in 🇳🇱. 14/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht CONCLUSION: We find NO evidence for the claim that these are being transported 'to the Ukrainian border'. ❌

Rather, the M2A3 type Bradleys appear to be part of a US cavalry unit stationed in Poland and Lithuania for a NATO mission. 15/...

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht What have we learned? 👩‍🏫

1) Mapping multiple videos gives a good overview. 🗺️
2) Be careful of confirmation bias. 🤦‍♀️
3) Every new video or image gives you new clues and a better understanding of a situation: keep digging. 📽️ 16/..

@EuromaidanPress @Lotte_Lambrecht I thank @Knack colleague @Lotte_Lambrecht
for helping in this investigation. 🙏

You can read our full article with all sources used here (@Knack) for FREE. 👇17/...

knack.be/factcheck/fact…

Did you learn something from this #OSINT for #FactChecking?

Follow me (@brechtcastel) and check out my channel on #YouTube: youtube.com/channel/UCMBPt… 🙏

Older 🧵🧵underneath this tweet:

https://twitter.com/brechtcastel/status/1390688405416198145

18/END