Thread by @ZimermanErik

Following up on the Kreminna forest front. I believe it is critical for #Russian forces to seal off the length of the forest belt along the Siverskyi river. To do to this southern forest flank precisely what they were not able to do to the western flank of the Izium forest belt

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1621351980714139648

a few months back (and as discussed in the quoted previous post). So this is what we are talking about, a combination of complex river system (Siverskyi Donets) or alluvial plain with natural dense forests, and a wider managed forestry plantation. Russia has been able to hold

Dobrova (which was key), and edges of the forest south of Kreminna. Torske and Zarichne are held by UA forces easily supplied from a build up in Lyman. However, with Dibrova in RU hands, UA forces are using river crossings in the south from the Siversk front to greatly multiply

the length of threatened front against RU and it supply lines as it tries to push west towards Torske. The forest allows an approach right up to the city of Kreminna, the critical supply rail and road hub. While RU is doing its best to hold the front from the north as it should

(see previous post), I believe the key to this particular section lies in the south, cutting off the access of UA forces across the Siverskyi Donets river. The length of forest belt with exposed flanks then becomes untannable, & UA forces must once again withdraw or face

encirclement as Russian foces advance on Siversk in the south, and on Torske (then Yampil) in the north. The pressure on Kreminna would immediately be lessened. The idea is simple. Bilohorivka is very strongly defended by UA forces utilizing its high ground. RU forces however, by

design or happenchance of the combat, have access to the plain south of the river deep towards Siversk. There has been quite a few indications that this is the case. RU forces therefore, while keeping pressure on Bilohorivka from the east and southeast, should advance and seize

Serebrianka and/or Hryhorivka, thus cutting off and encircling troops at Bilohorivkal. It would be quite interesting that the town whose seizure sealed the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk cauldron (as I discussed many times previous to its occurrence ie

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1540221923635896320

), could

now be the town, once again in UA hands, itself in the next cauldron. Rather than head to the wal, it is Serebriank and Hryhorivka that are the easier targets to encircle Bilohorivka. The capture of either is likely to ensure the capture of all 3 towns along the river, cutting

off the flank & supply of the forest belt threatening Kreminna. From here RU forces could advance on the high ground north of Siversk (as other forces advance north along the ridges from the south), turn back on the rear of strong UA positions holding the eastern Siversk front,

and cut off access to the forest belt from across the Donets. From here the battle for Yampil and Torske would be much easier and the logistical hub of Kremiina and its surroundings stabizlied. Ukraine, aware of this, ought to pour many resources on all 3 towns on the south bank

of the river to prevent this and put much of its offensive resources across the forest onto the Kreminna roads (as well as along the entire northern front). It's ability to advance on strongly held RU lines is nearly non existent, and it cannot stop strong RU advances but only

slow them and yet it remains committed to doing these two almost exclusively. That and of course endless sideshows of life wasting special forces missions. On a daily basis we see UA DRGs and special units attempting missions of little sense, no chance of success and potentially

high PR value. Interestingly the one time UA built up strength to attack RU's achilles heel, rather than use all its strength to contest every meter of ground, it did quite well. Much harder to replicate now but it could still try. The starkness of this reality is not felt by

most people because according to mainstream coverage Ukraine has almost consistently always been winning. The reality is virtually the exact reverse situation, and this is why the advance on the Khakrhov front was quite a feat (I will hopefully get to write on that soon as well).

In any event, Zelensky's regime having failed to be astute enough to prevent a war it likely cannot win (and in fact brought it about), is not being anywhere near astute enough to brave the odds and win. This does not mean however, that with the economic might of the west behind

it, Russia could afford to be any less so. So by my way or any other way, we shall see if the Kreminna forest belt is secured, while the advance on Siversk and encirclment of Bakhmut is achieved. Then shall we see a humbled regime ready to make peace, or will the Slovansk line

be next? Will the media carry the war forward going on about this or that magical weapon that will turn the tide...? The bayraktar, the nlaw, the HIMARs, now I believe its a few leporard 2 tanks coming in months. I will enjoy writing about it all, but in the meantime some of the

last fierce european men, cousins if not brothers by birth, brave the snowy steppe and battle each other to death.

#RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar