Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains along the southern axis on February 3. isw.pub/UkrWar020323
2/ Ukrainian officials continue to include a possible Russian offensive in the southern direction within their forecast cone as of February 3. isw.pub/UkrWar020323
3/ Russian sources claimed that the front line in #Zaporizhia Oblast has not changed and that Russian and Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups continue to operate along the front line.
4/ A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited raids near Kruhlyi and Dovhyi islands south of the #Kinburn Peninsula on 2 & 3 FEB, the first reported instance of Ukrainian forces reaching that area of the peninsula since Russian forces initially captured it.
5/ #Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command warned on February 3 that Russian forces increased the number of Kalibr missile-carrying ships in the Black Sea and are preparing for another wave of missile strikes. isw.pub/UkrWar020323
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Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. 1/ isw.pub/UkrWar020423
Geolocated footage shows #Ukrainian forces striking a #Russian Tor M2DT air defense system 12km southwest of Nova Kakhovka, #Kherson Oblast and 8km from the east (left) bank of the #Dnipro River on February 3, the second instance in two days. 2/
The presence of these short-range air defense systems optimized for Arctic warfare near the riverbank suggests that the #Russian 80th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet is operating close to the riverbank and has brought its own air defense systems. 3/
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on February 4. 1/ isw.pub/UkrWar020423
The #Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister stated that #Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations in the direction of #Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but that they have been unsuccessful. 2/
#Russian milbloggers are attempting to portray Russian offensives northeast of #Bakhmut and south of Kreminna as being a complementary effort to encircle Siversk. 3/
NEW: #Russian decisive offensive operations are unlikely to target #Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline as the Russian military continues to prepare for an offensive in western #Luhansk Oblast.
2/ ISW continues to assess that Russia is concentrating troops and military equipment to stage a decisive offensive on the western Luhansk Oblast and Bakhmut areas.
3/ Western and Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted that Russian forces are likely setting conditions to reach the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22.
.@TheStudyofWar has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat #Ukraine’s forces in eastern Ukraine and capture over 11,300 sq km of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (>42% of its total area) before March as #Putin reportedly ordered. 1/
2/ Indeed, #Putin may again be overestimating the Russian military’s own capabilities, as ISW assessed last week.
3/ ISW on 28 JAN assessed that a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season (if not before) before achieving operationally significant effects. isw.pub/UkrWar012823
Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have made incremental advances northeast of #Bakhmut near Rozdolivka (15km NE of Bakhmut) and on the northern outskirts of Bakhmut itself. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
2/ #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Group captured Sacco and Vanzetti and Mykolaivka, two settlements about 15km north of #Bakhmut, on February 1 and 2, respectively. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
3/ It is still unclear whether Russian operations in the Rozdolivka-Mykolaivka area northeast of #Bakhmut are intended to support the encirclement of Bakhmut by pushing southwest along the T1302 Bakhmut-Siversk highway...
Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the #Svatove area on February 2 while Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the #Kreminna area. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
2/ #Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 2 that Russian forces have increased the rate of shelling in the #Svatove and #Kremmina directions in preparation for an offensive effort in February...
3/ ...supporting @TheStudyofWar's previous assessment that a Russian offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).