1/ yep! i've read it could even goes down as much as 8% so it seems "reasonable" to me. Also Natalia's analysis has been made with only verified datas/giures/trends and legit forecast.
so... sounds good to me.
#RussianEconomy
3/ everybody should start to really implement the sanctions now...
hello #Greece !
4/ Jason @officejjsmart
has made a good video also worth watching, more oriented about import this time.. Always good to have another perspective on a single - & so vast- subject.
kyivpost.com/post/11565
5/ reminder to have a quick view on what was the general view on this global subject few months ago :
6/ what IMF is saying : grid.news/story/global/2…
7/ another perspective on how Russian is handling sanctions by the excellent @polinaivanovva
9/ i was trying to find an image for the ones with no understanding on all this, & i only can come up with this (from a movie the guy is not real) but it kind of tells you with the HUGE amount of reserve #Russia had before war began, & very low debt, it kind of represent this guy
10/ if you put him to a forced diet and forced him to box for 2 years, well, of course he'll shrink therefore have less "cushion/protection" & you'll be able to "work" on his "body"... but it"ll take time,
because for the first time in history, no one can really go on the
11/ territory of the aggressor, and put pressure directly on the entirety of the system itself. there is no "war" against Ru right now. just an "ok" help to Ukraine to fight the RU army. that's it.

so yes it'll work, & we are right to do so, but it's a very long term strategy.
12/last interesting piece imo about current #RussianEconomy
(i also had the 2023 RU budget very interesting to notice how they are cutting in all social helps & infrastructures develop, but i can't find it now)

finance.yahoo.com/news/long-russ…
13/ of course this SIPRI paper for 2022 as a reminder
sipri.org/sites/default/…

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More from @HeliosRunner

Feb 5
1/ i'm not going to do the week end recap today - maybe update tomorrow as the situation remains almost the same (out of few couple meters here & there)
just want to let you know that for the last 24h there are 2 majors areas where RU & Ukr are confronting really hard (purple) Image
2/ one is the part above (for the hill - highground) above #Blahodatne (reminder read 8/9/ here below) :
3/ and also the South West of #Bakhmut, were Ukrainians are really doing a number there as they have decided not to let the Ru stay there as they were so closed to totally control the area. really hard battles there..
and Ru absolutely need the area to go on with their plan...
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
1/ Merci au toujours tres juste Général Patrick Dutartre (passage @LCI chez @DariusRochebin pour dire exactement ce que je pense: rien ne prouve à cet heure que c'était vraiment un ballon espion. Rien.
comme je le disais hier à @JKaarsbo ...
c'est tres tres "pratique" surtout en
2/ ce moment de "s'exciter" sur cet objet qui de toute façon n'apporterai (meme potentiellement) pas le moindre intérêt reel en terme "de renseignement" surtout que cela est déjà arrivé, et que le NORAD avait venu venir ce ballon gros comme un immeuble, depuis des jours.
et là
3/ cela va s'exploser dans l'eau. bon courage pour retrouver les morceaux... il n'y a surement rien qui flotte et ne sera donc récupérable (et ensuite bon courage pour aller traquer les morceaux au fond).
Et même au delà de ça on a meme entendu des "spécialistes" dire que cela
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
1/ Mid day - Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on February 04, 2023
#Russian is slowly moving forward in a dozen of different areas & put maximum pressure but yet contained & minored success.
South #Bakhmut area one of them.
#AFU resist.
#UkraineMap
2/ To be honest i thought #Ukraine would have tried (much more) to push back Ru orcs in S-SO of #Bakhmut, because as explained earlier i think by the end of the month, the East side of Bakhmut will certainly be under Ru control, so #AFU could manage to control all the west side.
3/ but Russians have so many men there (and much much more to come quite soon) that if they dont take the control back up to Mayorsk, & if Ru take heights close to Tchasiv Yar, as said it would be even difficult to hold the West part of Bakhmut.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 3
Trinquand : "et il se sont rendu compte que cela ne servait a rien cette bataille de Severodonetsk"
idem pour ce qui aurait soit disant été dit à Zelensky sur Lyssichantsk pour sortir de là (alors que c'est lui qui a décidé)
idem Bakhmut
faux ! faux faux! tout le contraire!
2/ a l'epoque j'ai fait tout un papier sur ça... repris par bcp!
tous les services de rens UKR, tous les deputés, tous les mil ont validés et remercier le sacrifice fait à Severodonetsk mais en realité aussi proportionnellement partout ailleurs, pied à pied!
essentiel travail
3/ de destruction de l'armée russe! cela à casser des bataillons entier de troupes tres performantes!
on se bat ou sinon? ou?? c'est sidérant cette incompréhension du réel, cette reecriture de l'histoire.. là Trinquand il a battu tous les record.. et de voir a quel point ils
Read 9 tweets
Feb 3
Ah... elle est de retour miss "brasse vent"....
m'avait pas manqué...
"le bleu était bleu avant que le vert soit bien confirmé comme vert, & ds 6 mois peut etre que le rouge sera rouge... mais ça, on verra, n'est-ce pas"
3/ l'#Ukraine se bat depuis 2014 et même si ils doivent se battre avec des petites cuillères rouillées et si il n'y avait seulement que les pays voisins comme soutien ils continueront !!
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
Soon. it's coming soon.
#Russians are finalizing their prep for the next major offensive.
Already btw 285k-320k Russians now in #Ukraine
and expecting at least 300k more. (but i don't know the incoming rate, we do not have a proper calendar of course)
2/
3/ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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