A preliminary estimate of the potential #aftershock #earthquake activity in #Turkey. #deprem
Very high probabilities for damaging aftershock ground motion over a large area including #Malatya, #Gaziantep, #Iskenderun and #Hatay
Very high probabilities for damaging aftershock ground motion over a large area including #Malatya, #Gaziantep, #Iskenderun and #Hatay
Based on the statistics of the first 8h since the main earthquake and similar seismic sequencies historically, at least another 30 aftershocks >M4 can be expected within the next 24h.
Another M6+ earthquake is possible (uncertainty: 0.4 - 3.0 events in 24h).
Another M6+ earthquake is possible (uncertainty: 0.4 - 3.0 events in 24h).
This is a purely statistical assessment of the potential aftershock activity after large earthquakes and not an official forecast.
Please be safe and stay away from any damaged buildings which may collapse during future aftershocks.
Please be safe and stay away from any damaged buildings which may collapse during future aftershocks.
In contrast to an actual earthquake prediction (which is not possible!), an aftershock forecast based on the concurrent seismic activity is, in a limited way, possible.
But keep in mind that the uncertainties are high and the modeling above gives only a trend for the activity.
But keep in mind that the uncertainties are high and the modeling above gives only a trend for the activity.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
