Urus1369 Profile picture
Feb 6 11 tweets 6 min read
$btc #bitcoin is suffering from a mini-dump this past couple of days.

ATM, we're trading above the $22,630 level.

On the 1D chart, though, it does not look like structure was broken.

Instead we're trading inside the range we've been in for the last 2 weeks or so
Let's look at $btc on the 4H chart now

Basically, on the 4H, I'm looking at 4 scenarios;

This is the first scenario - looking for a dip into the FVG, then we get another let up.

Which might be the last leg of this rally before a deeper retracement.
The second scenario would be something like this:
A bearish continuation scenario.

Retest of $23,058, then further downside.

Very plausible. In this case I expect we test at least $22k if not the $21,500 area...
Third scenario for $btc #Bitcoin

This would be the most optimistic, bullish one:

PA back above $23,058, retest & confirm as support, rally higher.

We'll have to observe the markets to determine how probable this is.

It really depends on how people ape into longs.
If there's FOMO longing $btc at this level, the MMs will drive price to liquidate those longs.

Again and again, until people stop FOMO longing. Then I believe we can go up.

As long as peeps market long #Bitcoin 100x at current price levels, they're gonna be hunted/liquidated
The rest of the #cryptomarket followed suit and dumped.

$egld #MultiversX is keeping steady.

After having a +10% move last week, $egld retraced ˜50% of the move.

The 0.5 Fib of that move comes in at $44.23 which, as we can see, held up quite nicely
We must now close on the 4H > $45

for $egld to have any chance of a bullish continuation.

Otherwise we may go further down, to $43 - $43.5 to find support.

If that support area is lost, we go back below $42...
Let's look at $eth #Ethereum now...

Stuck in a range for quite a while, same as $btc

The levels we had on our charts for 2 weeks now working brilliantly, as you can see

#eth holding it's 0.5 0.618 area of the Fib retracement,
Therefore it is likely we have bullish continuation form here if $1,608 holds as support. We might even be heading to $1,800 if it does.

But, I want to repeat these are just probabilities...

Aaand... it's all contingent on what $btc does!
Finally, I wanna look at $SPX on the Daily.

Take a look at the chart below:

Zoomed out & zoomed-in

IMHO, I believe this kinda starts to look like exhaustion.

Therefore if we do get another leg up in #crypto... Pump may be nearing its end

So... Be careful out there 🙏🚨‼️
If you like this kind of analysis follow me @urus1369

And, remember! A RT + ❤️ gets u some high 5s from Satoshi 🙏

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More from @urus1369

Feb 7
Everyone & their grandma' is hyped today about the golden cross we just got on $btc

But ... let's look at it objectively and follow the data

Golden Cross = the 50Day SMA crosses above the 200D SMA from below

Next.. analysis

Strap in for this 🧵, it's gonna be a good one 👇🔥 Image
Over the entire history of $btc

we experienced a total of 9 golden crosses

Of the 9, we can analyse 8 since 1 just happened

Of these 8 ...
➡️ 3 were invalid, price dropping after
➡️ 4 were valid, leading to significant rallies
➡️ 1 was questionable

let's take them 1 by 1 Image
We start with the first golden cross

On Feb 9th, 2012.

Zoomed out looks great.

It preceded the entire 2012-2013 bull market

Bet when we zoom a little close ... 👀👇 Image
Read 28 tweets
Feb 4
Time for another weekend analysis.

This time I want to start with $dxy

As we were expecting, $dxy looks like it finally found support and bounced

Here is the scenario we were looking for:

I still believe it's likely $dxy will rise towards the 107 area Image
This rise in $dxy would, on average, be correlated with weakness in $spx and $btc

$spx had a bullish week, only to close bearish on Friday b/c of earning reports

ATM, I believe $4,200 is resistance for $spx

$4,100 is support

we may be in for ranging PA next week Image
As we were expecting, $dji had a ranging week

between 34,364 and 33,792

ATM, until we confirm a break above 34,364 I think it's really like ranging PA will continue
Read 13 tweets

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