1/ Russians are preparing a huge offensive in order to reach the limits of #Luhansk region as they were asked few weeks ago. Several reports and contact seems now to confirms major input of fresh troops all along the #Svatove #Kreminna axis (plus back up in #Starobilsk area.
2/ it's not easy of course to have precise numbers but we can talk from 10k to 15k on top of actual RU troops. Also thousands more as reserve and some support.
Indications from Regional mil command about large amount of armored vehicles also being send to "waiting zone".
3/ Exactly like Ru probed the Zaporijia area week ago, the current attack and RU SOF actions to sneak into the UKR lines were certainly only to "update" actual Ukr def positions / way to react / available materials / com / reaction times etc etc.
so very soon now, major attack.
4/ we can expect, because they are doing the same in all major axis along all the front line to see some reports with thousand deaths/day & sudden "bumps" in RU material losses...
but maybe also some territorial losses on the Ukr side. (not for sure.. but we better think abt it)
5/ as someone just asked : if you don't know about it but don't forget that there is another line of UKR defenders couple km back... RU will have to deal with double line of defense! like it was back in the day in Izyum area.
so don't "fear" big break through.
also bad terrain

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More from @HeliosRunner

Feb 8
1/ Mid day - Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on February 08, 2023
#Russian spent the last day & night moving forward in dozen of different areas to close the pocket, but yet contained, but to be frank the dynamic is not good for UKR now.
#UkraineMap Image
2/ To make it obvious for some of you i have highlighted the general movement Ru is trying to achieve there and in green the last true road that be taken for resupply and med evacs. because the 2 other ones are not really used right now.. (still some) Image
3/ so it's quite difficult to assess the exact limits of the attacks, the magnitude of it, & exactly what happened, but as i called it yesterday some groups were trying to "hide" within major attacks & reach some villages in the "back" of UKR defense.
not sure if all the targets
Read 10 tweets
Feb 6
Little "side track" this morning as there is a major catastrophe in #Turkey #TurkeyEarthquake
SÉISME EN #Turquie - Scène de désolations à #Kahramanmaraş en #Turquie où mult immeubles se sont effondrés, tuant un nb record de personnes. #seisme
2/ Apparently #Gaziantep in #Turkey is also partly destroyed

A destructive Magnitude up to 7.8 earthquake just struck southern Turkey near Gaziantep that has caused extensive destructions
3/ le fameux chateau (reconstruit) de #Gazantiep aurait vraiment subit des dommages considérables
j'aimerais bien insérer une petite remarque sur l'orgueil & le Karma etc.. mais bon, je vais me retenir qq jours surtout si ce drame à fait pas mal de victimes...
#TurkeyEarthquake ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Feb 5
1/ i'm not going to do the week end recap today - maybe update tomorrow as the situation remains almost the same (out of few couple meters here & there)
just want to let you know that for the last 24h there are 2 majors areas where RU & Ukr are confronting really hard (purple)
2/ one is the part above (for the hill - highground) above #Blahodatne (reminder read 8/9/ here below) :
3/ and also the South West of #Bakhmut, were Ukrainians are really doing a number there as they have decided not to let the Ru stay there as they were so closed to totally control the area. really hard battles there..
and Ru absolutely need the area to go on with their plan...
Read 9 tweets
Feb 5
1/ yep! i've read it could even goes down as much as 8% so it seems "reasonable" to me. Also Natalia's analysis has been made with only verified datas/giures/trends and legit forecast.
so... sounds good to me.
#RussianEconomy
3/ everybody should start to really implement the sanctions now...
hello #Greece !
Read 13 tweets
Feb 4
1/ Merci au toujours tres juste Général Patrick Dutartre (passage @LCI chez @DariusRochebin pour dire exactement ce que je pense: rien ne prouve à cet heure que c'était vraiment un ballon espion. Rien.
comme je le disais hier à @JKaarsbo ...
c'est tres tres "pratique" surtout en
2/ ce moment de "s'exciter" sur cet objet qui de toute façon n'apporterai (meme potentiellement) pas le moindre intérêt reel en terme "de renseignement" surtout que cela est déjà arrivé, et que le NORAD avait venu venir ce ballon gros comme un immeuble, depuis des jours.
et là
3/ cela va s'exploser dans l'eau. bon courage pour retrouver les morceaux... il n'y a surement rien qui flotte et ne sera donc récupérable (et ensuite bon courage pour aller traquer les morceaux au fond).
Et même au delà de ça on a meme entendu des "spécialistes" dire que cela
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
1/ Mid day - Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on February 04, 2023
#Russian is slowly moving forward in a dozen of different areas & put maximum pressure but yet contained & minored success.
South #Bakhmut area one of them.
#AFU resist.
#UkraineMap
2/ To be honest i thought #Ukraine would have tried (much more) to push back Ru orcs in S-SO of #Bakhmut, because as explained earlier i think by the end of the month, the East side of Bakhmut will certainly be under Ru control, so #AFU could manage to control all the west side.
3/ but Russians have so many men there (and much much more to come quite soon) that if they dont take the control back up to Mayorsk, & if Ru take heights close to Tchasiv Yar, as said it would be even difficult to hold the West part of Bakhmut.
Read 24 tweets

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