2/ The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western #Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week...
3/ ...and Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the #Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of #Svatove near #Kupyansk and west of #Kreminna.
4/ Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as @TheStudyofWar previously reported.
5/ Elements of several regiments of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Division and a regiment of the 90th Tank Division, supported by elements of the 76th Airborne Division and unspecified Southern Military District elements...
6/ ...are conducting offensive operations along the entire Svatove-Kreminna line and are reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defenses.
7/ The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.
8/ The Russian offensive likely has not yet reached its full tempo; the Russian command has not yet committed elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, which deployed to #Luhansk Oblast in January after deploying to Belarus. isw.pub/UkrWar020823
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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completely captured Dvorichne, #Kharkiv Oblast (53km northwest of Svatove), although @TheStudyofWar has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.
3/ Russian forces appear to be concentrating renewed offensive operations northwest of #Svatove around Dvorichna (55km northwest of Svatove) and likely intend to capture Dvorichna in the coming weeks.
The #Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare #Russia’s defense-industrial base for a protracted war in #Ukraine while avoiding wider economic mobilization. isw.pub/UkrWar020923
2/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin held a meeting with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives on February 9 and instructed the agency to support federal subjects in developing the production of unmanned aircraft systems.
3/ Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev today visited a tank manufacturing plant in Omsk Oblast and stated that Russia needs to increase the production of various armaments, including modern tanks, in response to Western military assistance to #Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and continued offensive operations around #Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar020923
2/ A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops have recently changed their tactics in the Bakhmut area and are focusing less on frontal assaults on small settlements and more on interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communication into Bakhmut along the E40 & T0504 highways
3/ This observation is consistent with the Ukrainian General Staff report of Russian attacks towards Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, both critical settlements along the T0504.
Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Svatove-#Kreminna line on February 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Stelmakhivka, 15km west of #Svatove. isw.pub/UkrWar020923
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Central Military District elements are operating in the #Lyman direction (the area west of #Kreminna) and using TOS-1 thermobaric multiple rocket launch systems.
3/ The commitment of a military district-level asset such as the TOS-1 to the #Kreminna area suggests that the Russian MoD is prioritizing this axis. isw.pub/UkrWar020923
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced today that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. The #Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare #Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war in #Ukraine.
2/ The Wagner Group will likely continue to recruit from prisons, albeit in a much more limited capacity. isw.pub/UkrWar020923
3/ As ISW has previously noted, Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners has slowed over the last few months, an assessment confirmed by statistics by the Federal Penitentiary Service that show that decreases in the Russian prison population stabilized between NOV 2022 and JAN 2023.
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen degraded DNR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive. isw.pub/UkrWar020823
2/ ISW has not previously seen Russian personnel subordinated to a DNR formation and this claim, if true, would suggest that Russian forces may be reinforcing degraded DNR formations with mobilized personnel from Russia itself because DNR formations are unable to replenish losses
3/ The reported subordination of Russian military personnel to DNR formations may portend a Russian effort to prepare DNR formations for an expanded role in their zone of responsibility along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.