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JR2

@JanR210

Jan 23

1/
🇷🇺 Federal Agency for State Reserves (Росрезерв)
Summary of corruption, pilfering & appropriations. 🧵

- currently no director, just acting Igor Guchas (Игор Гучас)
- majority of data is classified (internal structure, what products, how many depots, their locations, etc.)

2/
two key words that facilitate corruption: “закладка” (purchase) and “выпуск” (sale). Participation in all these events is authorized by #FSB. As you may expect, authorization is not for free. And the slices of the cake are not even.

3/
It is a very narrow entourage. All #Putin’s friends and their families. And they decide all the prices. Obviously the profits are located outside Russia. But one false step and one may end in prison. Especially with fuel contracts. Or cheating top management.

Read 8 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Jan 23

1/
#Russian Uralvagonzavod (tank production) urgently needs metal machinery workers. Local Prison Directorate is to select and send 250 workers there.
The situation is dire in all military industry factories. Shortage of electronics, electricity & automation is gravely critical.

2/
🇷🇺 assess the vacancies to 40k-50k. All retired personnel was requested to return to jobs. Still few want to take the job due to low salaries. Military industry pays machinery operators 40k rubles (€550) a month while non-military - even 80k.
Russians anonymously say:

3/
“I can take it, but I need a salary like a private in [special military operation], three meals a day & free lodging.”
“I left the job in military industry with 27k rubles. Average worker age was 58 and growing.” See the assembly of the Mi-28 and guess their age.

Read 6 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Jan 7

1/
#Russian 2023 post-victory assessment (abbreviated)
A. political/economic:
- 🇷🇺 fights with NATO & in this case the victory is not achievable
- 🇷🇺 must force NATO to stop supporting 🇺🇦 & it must be the new 🇷🇺 strategy
- that could lower the quality of life in EU/NATO and

2/
initiate the most severe crisis in capitalism zone
- 🇷🇺 will survive it, the West not
B. military:
- 20th century concepts of occupation will not work
- when 🇷🇺 occupies 🇺🇦, guerrilla movement will not stop,
- some units relocate to Poland, where it can’t be attacked

3/
- 🇷🇺 rear will never be secured, guerrillas will operate inside 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 urban areas
- no secure air space for 🇷🇺 aircraft
- every single 🇷🇺 unit/garrison will have to be defended
- no continuous supplies from 🇷🇺

Read 6 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Dec 28, 2022

1/
#Russian (rather chaotic) assessment of 🇷🇺 Air Defence.
Source: 🇷🇺. (my notes in brackets)
- 🇷🇺 AD can intercept 🇺🇦 SS-21 (but not Tu-141/143)
- 🇷🇺 decreased 🇺🇦 Air Force activity (but 🇷🇺 don’t fly into 🇺🇦 aware of HARMs, & FAB bombs are useless)

2/
- 🇺🇦 Bayraktar TB2 are out of game (reality: 🇷🇺 HVTs keep away from TB2s)
- SA-15 Tor adapted to 🇷🇺 Navy (makeshift projects)
- S-300 effective against 🇺🇦 ground targets (can employ salvo strikes saturating 🇺🇦 AD)
- BUK-M3 as counterbattery radar (zooparks are too "blind")

3/
- only Pantsir-SM-TBM with doubled (24) missile load are considered combatworthy. These TBMs have no guns, no radar, missiles only
- a significant number of 🇷🇺 combat fixed & rotor wing aircraft (Su-30/34/35 & Ka-52) during the 1st phase of war was hit by 🇷🇺 AD friendly fire.

Read 6 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Dec 19, 2022

Source: 🤍❤️🤍 1/4
#Belarus
- Operations and Analysis Center (OAC) under the President of the Republic of Belarus was tasked to setup the 🇧🇾 mobilization database
- all OAC offices, except electronic intelligence unit and personnel management are temporarily paused

2/4
- the OAC military personnel work in “crisis regime”
- #Lukashenko doesn’t trust the army & plans to verify the readiness of each reserve officer
- the 🇧🇾 KGB mission is to prepare the procedure to block any individual departure & immediate border closure with #Russia

3/4
- 🇧🇾KGB closely cooperates with 🇷🇺 FSB in complete border closure of the 🇧🇾/🇷🇺 Union State
- the categories of mobilized person as “limited service” or “did not serve” were erased. All men aged 16-55 are counted as ready to serve

Read 4 tweets

JR2

@JanR210

Nov 30, 2022

Source: 🇷🇺. 🧵 1/n
#Russian arty counterbattery (CBF/КББ) tactics & why 🇷🇺 can’t destroy 🇺🇦 artillery. 🇷🇺 Assessments.

- in short: no intel, no experience.
- 🇺🇦 is strong & well armed with Soviet & Western weapons, linked with contemporary centrix-based comms supported with AI.

2/n
- 🇺🇦 operates along the 🇺🇸 concept of multidomain battle (air, land, sea, space, cyber) with live intel, uninterrupted combat readiness inside the OODA loop.
- 🇷🇺 noticed that the tactics 🇺🇦 employs is not what 🇷🇺 expects.

3/n
- 🇺🇦 artillery (10-12 pieces) disperse into autonomous groups with 2-4 pieces each (on an area up to 100 sq kms); no 🇺🇦radio activity whatsoever.
- autonomous means each 🇺🇦 group cdr is authorized to plan its operations independently from other groups.

Read 11 tweets

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