Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello There!
everything is ok today, nothing to worry about - to much- right now...
have a good day you all!
so i'm gonna a very quick recap today... maybe more this week as you'll see why.
#SlavaUkraïni
1/n

2/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on February 12, 2023
#Russian is NO MORE moving forward in about all the directions they intended to force their way in, during the last couple of weeks.
#Bakhmut & #Kreminna area one of them.
#AFU resist.
#UkraineMap

3/ I invite you to check previous reports for gen maps & explanations. For the North areas around #Kupiansk where nothing has really changed...

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1623958555438026753

4/ The situation was really difficult in the area of #Kreminna
but we have reports from both sides this morning that Ru finally stop their push there (gen staff reports indicates yesterday offensive) & went back to previous positions bc they have exhausted

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1623954876530040832

5/ their troops there, and they need now to heal wounds, get some new materials, replenish ranks with new comers, try to integrated alll this in new plan and articulate new operations for this coming weeks as they still not have reached their predetermined orders.
so they r fcked

6/ now the situation in #Bilohorivka is the same UKR remain master there, also in #Spirne or #Verkhnokyamanske
Holding here for months even if "destroyed".
Ru is trying to push there some times to times, but still can't achieve jack s...
#UAarmy stand strong.

7/ there were some "dances" recorded this week around #Shypylivka but then Ukr decided to pull back to have a coherent front line reagarding the advance of Ru S-West of #Kreminna. but nothing special here to say about it. it was tactical.
now they just went back to secure loc.

8/ so now regarding #Bakhmut & #TchassivYar #Ivanivske etc.. the situation is pretty much under control even if in some places Ru are moving "in" dozens meters at the time. in other areas they have been pushed back. as simple as that.
#KrasnaHora or #Paraskoviyivka still under

9/ Ukrainian control..
& quick note : as Ru have lost so many men there too, they are certainly not going to be able to take #Bakhmut by the end of the month.
i thought they would have been able - at least be able - to seize all the East side of the valley & more as the dynamic

10/ was on their side. But #AFU is now quite controlling these waves and they are somehow able to manage the huge flow of men coming in waves, there, almost non stop and day after day.
(we'll see in the numbers/figures recap part how it severely impacts Ru right now &in future)

11/ just a quick reminder of this week part of reports in the area :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1623951381680857089

12/ By the way another quick side note, again and again, as said several time, it's not because Wagner release a proof (red star on my map) that it means you got to let the Ru limits / determine what is Feba line. it's simply figurative.
when you talk to Ukr with direct contact

13/ there, read direct reports etc, you know that sometimes in a 24h times laps, you have 5 moves of diff units in such areas and no one controls it for real. it"s like a shell being pushed on a beach. you just see the line, does not mean they are still there. so first of all -

14/ all the guys pointing this out as Ru BEING there is false. & i'm gonna say it again, that just makes you Wagner bitches to report within the same hour what they r "feeding u" & just show me we really don't have the same past & does the same "job". (Fra à ailes molles, inclus)

15/ no regarding the other areas, nothing much to add, as nothing really has changed.
as usual, i'll do some reports if there is some real major breakthrough here or there..
from this point on you can check there :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1619733662601465856

16/ except maybe for the situation in #Vuhledar where there were massive movements during the last weeks exactly like in Bakhmut area but they were forced to leave due to major catastrophic mass destruction of armored materials & tons of men...
reminder :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1622893510872399874

17/ ok that's about it for the maps now for the figures & numbers / stats
here we go : recap:
alleged #RussianLosses day & week recap

18/ you check previous weeks in monthly recap like here :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1619780770952003585

19/ so now what it implies, for the "week 50" is that the rate of destruction/attrition has dramatically changed this week vs last week. = death slope for Ru army..

20/ now about Ukr and #RussianLosses this is a global help for you if you want.

yes i know, i said i will do a special thread to explain, as i did months ago.. and i'll try to do it this week.
but it's gonna be a huge one, so i need a lot of time.
& don't have much right now.

21/ Also the graph made by my friend Thomas (thanks again for keeping all the tabs up to date when i'm away ;-)
clearly showing the crazy trend of Russian using canon fodder to take some victories...
and the we got to understand that only for the last month,

22/ Russians have lost 22'490 KIA so about 67'470 WIA (if x3)
so even if we take (as i always to & explained from the begining) 15% off these numbers & even if we go low as x2 for wounded bc recently it was just a butchery moving forward ala WWI
we will still have 19'557 kia +

23/ 39'113 Wia = 58'670 total incapacitated men.
so 60k guys out of the business for good! (maybe 10/15% of WIA will come back that's about it)
so it's basically an entire Western army gone! (excluding support etc)

reason why Ru now need some time to "heal" & reorganize a bit

24/ i'll come back later on to finish the global report...
i need to go and take care of important things right now..
see you "soon"
have a good day you all!
thks for sharing !!! it takes me a TON of my personal time to make all this..
& careful.. i'm watching you 😄
Cheers!

25/ "but how can we explain that Russians are losing so many men... ? oh could we know out of destroyed armored vehicles??"
well, because we have ton of vids about the stupid way they are forced (WWI vibes) to go forward..

26/ Today's report from Ukr sides (morning & last one):

27/ Russia own documents

28/ "wargogo" partial reports.. you can tell they are really suffering and not able to close the deal anywhere, even worse, they are moving out in certain areas..
& second reports from stupid in love with new laser system for their "beast" T90 to work& have any kind of success 🤣

29/ Now a very interesting graphic regarding the #RussianMissilesAttacks
(NB. i've explained that the subject is more complex than that... for diff reasons, like hiding real impacts, destroyed objects, psyops abt missiles failures/interception etc. but, nonetheless interesting!)

30/ #UkraineEnergy #UkraineCivilLife

31/ lolol #Russian whiners on Grey zone
you remember the big old drunk fck pushing his commander... bim 7 years of jail !
& if you think he is lucky you can be sure if RU lose too many guys in coming months he'll certainly be send in the frontline anyway...

32/ ok & as usual to finish the general thread
You can add 15% minimum to these numbers (not going to make demonstration again but ton of intel in Russia to show they r not reporting what local authorities shows)
the destruction of "Ru army spine" is still on its way to succeed!!

33/ just realized it did not pin several past reports during the week...
i'm going to put them here & following for record.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1623257721016401920

34/ just a quick note / add-on
several questions about #KrasnaHora
as explained, sometimes, i receive direct intel like couple days ago... indicating they are in danger & then stabilizing. then no more...
i did today's review with my last intel & 6 o'clock gen staff report.

35/ so as i said this week they might have decided to withdraw because of danger, as it was expected... nothing special.
but as i have ALWAYS stated (so stop breaking my balls) i report what is known & if it's with 24h delay it's totally OK! bc 1000 times in the past, Ru are

36/ sometimes just taking photos at the entry of a village and then they have to move out...
so here, sure, they maybe are inside and then it just fit what i explained earlier...
but i'll wait tomorrow for real hard confirmation.
i'm sure normal people can live with that.
Ciao