Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko reiterated his longstanding boilerplate rhetoric that Belarusian forces will attack #Ukraine if Ukraine or the West attacks #Belarus. isw.pub/UkrWar021623
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1626409096164278273
2/ This is not extraordinary — Lukashenko has parroted this narrative since February 2022, and his decision to reiterate it today is likely part of long-running Russian information ops suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine.
3/ ISW has written at length about why #Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future. We continue to assess that Belarusian forces remain extremely unlikely to invade #Ukraine with or without Russian forces.
4/ #Lukashenko may have made this statement to set information conditions for his meeting with Russian President Vladimir #Putin planned for February 17. isw.pub/UkrWar021623
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