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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Mar 16

https://twitter.com/chamranii/status/1901224181343117727

Compare the human and material losses sustained by India in the entirety of Kashmir insurgency with the human and material losses sustained by Pakistan in the insurgencies in Balochistan and KP province in the last 20 years only.

https://twitter.com/chamranii/status/1901224181343117727

I posted the above post on Grok and this is what Grok had to say about the matter:

Comparing the human and material losses sustained by India in the Kashmir insurgency (spanning from 1989 to the present) with those sustained by Pakistan in the insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) over the last 20 years (2005–2025) is a complex task due to the differing durations, intensities, and data availability for these conflicts. Below is an analysis based on available estimates, focusing on human losses (fatalities) and, to a lesser extent, material losses, acknowledging the limitations in precise figures, especially for material damages.

Human Losses

India: Kashmir Insurgency (1989–Present)

The insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir began in 1989 and has involved separatist militants, Indian security forces, and civilians. Estimates of total fatalities vary depending on the source:

Official Indian Government Data: As of March 2017, approximately 41,000 people had died, including 14,000 civilians, 5,000 security personnel, and 22,000 militants. This figure covers the period from 1989 to 2017.

Other Estimates: The Jammu and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society suggests a higher toll of around 70,000 deaths (mostly civilians) from 1989 to the early 2000s. Human Rights Watch reported at least 20,000 civilian deaths by 2006. Pro-Pakistan groups like the Hurriyat have claimed up to 80,000 deaths, though these figures are less substantiated.

Post-2017 Trends: Violence has significantly declined since the peak in the 1990s and early 2000s. From 2004 onward, annual deaths have dropped sharply, with the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) reporting 47 security personnel deaths in 2022 and around 60 total fatalities (30 security forces, 30 civilians) in Kashmir in 2023. Extrapolating conservatively from 2017 to March 2025, assuming an average of 100–150 deaths per year (based on recent trends), an additional 800–1,200 deaths might be added, bringing the total to approximately 41,800–42,200 (official) or up to 71,000–80,000 (higher estimates).

Thus, a reasonable range for total fatalities in the Kashmir insurgency from 1989 to March 2025 is 42,000–80,000, with the majority occurring before 2005.

Pakistan: Balochistan and KP Insurgencies (2005–2025)

Pakistan has faced two distinct insurgencies in the last 20 years: the Baloch nationalist insurgency in Balochistan (intensifying since 2003–2004) and the Islamist insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), primarily led by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), escalating after 2004.

Balochistan Insurgency:

The Baloch insurgency has been a low-to-mid-intensity conflict with periodic escalations. Reliable comprehensive data is scarce, but estimates can be pieced together:

From 2003 to 2012, the radical Islamist group Jundallah (active in Balochistan and Iran) alone caused around 296 deaths in Iran, with additional unquantified casualties in Pakistan.

In 2024, over 900 attacks were attributed to Baloch insurgent groups (e.g., Baloch Liberation Army—BLA), with significant incidents like Operation Herof in August 2024 killing over 70 people in a single day.

Analyst estimates suggest thousands of deaths over two decades. For example, the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) and other sources indicate that between 2004 and 2019, Balochistan saw consistent militant activity, with annual fatalities likely in the hundreds during peak years (e.g., 2006 after Akbar Bugti’s death, or 2022–2024 escalations).

A conservative estimate for 2005–2025 might range from 5,000–10,000 deaths, including militants, security forces, and civilians, based on sporadic high-impact attacks and ongoing low-level violence.

KP Insurgency (War in North-West Pakistan):

The insurgency in KP, often termed Pakistan’s "war on terror," began in 2004 and peaked between 2007 and 2014, transitioning to a lower-intensity conflict by 2017. Data is more robust here:

(Cont)

The Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reported 282 security personnel deaths in 2022 alone, alongside 311 civilian fatalities, totaling nearly 600 deaths in one year across Pakistan, predominantly in KP and Balochistan.

From 2004 to 2019, SATP data suggests over 60,000 deaths in the broader "war on terror" (including KP, FATA, and spillovers), with KP being the epicenter. This includes 5,000–6,000 security personnel, 30,000–35,000 militants, and 20,000–25,000 civilians.

Post-2019, violence resurged after the Taliban’s 2021 Afghanistan victory. CRSS and SATP note 2023 as particularly deadly, with over 1,000 fatalities (security forces, civilians, militants) in KP and Balochistan combined, with KP bearing the brunt.

For 2005–2025, focusing on KP, fatalities likely range from 40,000–50,000, adjusting for the pre-2005 minimal activity and post-2019 resurgence.

Combined Total (Balochistan + KP): Adding Balochistan (5,000–10,000) and KP (40,000–50,000), the total human losses in Pakistan’s insurgencies from 2005 to March 2025 are approximately 45,000–60,000.

Material Losses

India: Kashmir Insurgency

Economic Impact: The Kashmir conflict has disrupted tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure development in Jammu and Kashmir. Estimates suggest billions of dollars in lost economic potential:

A 2018 study by the Jammu and Kashmir government estimated annual economic losses at $1–2 billion during peak violence (1990s–2000s), with cumulative losses possibly exceeding $50 billion by 2025, factoring in destroyed infrastructure (e.g., schools, bridges) and military spending.

Indian forces captured 40,000 firearms, 150,000 explosive devices, and 6 million rounds of ammunition from 1989 to 2002, indicating significant material losses for militants, though Indian military costs (e.g., troop deployment, border fencing) are harder to quantify precisely.

Military Costs: India maintains over 500,000 troops in Kashmir at times, with annual defense spending in the region likely in the billions, though not disaggregated from national budgets.

Pakistan: Balochistan and KP Insurgencies

Balochistan:

The insurgency has targeted strategic assets like gas pipelines, railways, and the Gwadar port (part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—CPEC). Attacks on infrastructure have caused losses in the hundreds of millions annually—e.g., gas supply disruptions cost Pakistan $100–200 million yearly in the 2000s–2010s.

CPEC projects (valued at $62 billion overall) have faced delays and damages, with specific attacks (e.g., 2022 Karachi University bombing) disrupting Chinese investments.

KP:

The KP insurgency devastated entire towns (2007–2014), displacing millions and destroying infrastructure. The Pakistani government estimated $100 billion in economic losses from the broader "war on terror" by 2014, with KP bearing a significant share (e.g., military operations like Zarb-e-Azb cost $3–5 billion).

Rebuilding efforts and military campaigns (e.g., Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad) have added billions more in costs.

Combined Estimate: Material losses in Balochistan and KP from 2005 to 2025 likely exceed $50–100 billion, combining infrastructure damage, economic disruption, and military expenditures.

Comparison

Human Losses:

India (Kashmir, 1989–2025): 42,000–80,000 deaths.

Pakistan (Balochistan + KP, 2005–2025): 45,000–60,000 deaths.

Observation: Pakistan’s losses over 20 years are comparable to or slightly exceed India’s lower-end estimates over 36 years, despite the shorter timeframe. The Kashmir conflict’s deadliest phase (1990s–2000s) skews its total higher in some estimates, but Pakistan’s KP insurgency alone rivals Kashmir’s scale, with Balochistan adding further toll.

Material Losses:

India: Likely $50 billion+ in economic and military costs over 36 years.

Pakistan: $50–100 billion over 20 years, concentrated in KP’s intense phase (2007–2014) and Balochistan’s strategic disruptions.

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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Nov 19, 2023

BREAKING:

IDF releases footage showing an Israeli hostage being taken inside Gaza's Al-Shifa Hospital by Hamas terrorists during the October 7 massacre in Israel.

A second CCTV footage shows another hostage (this one injured) from Israel brought into the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza on Oct. 7th.

About these two videos, the IDF says one hostage is Thai and the other a Nepali.

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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Jun 24, 2023

BREAKING:

Initial unconfirmed reports of a suicide bombing by a female bomber in Turbat, Balochistan. Developing. #Pakistan

Just saw the photos of the remains of the female suicide bomber who carried out today's attack in Balochistan. Damn. She's been blown to pieces but her severed head is surprisingly pretty intact. One security personnel dead and three wounded. #Pakistan

https://twitter.com/ShabbirTuri/status/1672583399968772098?t=VCht7UWzffF7cuL3BUARKA&s=19

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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Mar 9, 2023

Taliban's Balkh province governor Muhammad Dawood Muzamil has been assassinated in his office this morning in a suicide bombing.

#Afghanistan

Taliban's spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid:

"With great sadness we received the news that Balkh Governor Alhaji Mullah Mohammad Daud Muzamal was martyred in an explosion by the enemies of Islam.
An investigation into the incident is underway."

Footage from inside Taliban's Balkh governor's office where he was assassinated in a suicide bombing. #Afghanistan

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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Mar 8, 2023

Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov:

Taliban are a reality, so we are working with them. The financial blockade by US has stalled Taliban's efforts to fight [ISKP's] terrorism.

tass.com/pressreview/15…

Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov:

Russia has established working contacts with the Taliban. Several Russian delegations visited Kabul. Afghan Chamber of Commerce attended St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Trade turnover has increased 40% in one year.

Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov: One month ago, Russian businessmen from Tatarstan signed a memorandum on development of the coal thermal power sector in Afghanistan in Kabul. It is a trilateral project with Iran and Pakistan.
tass.com/economy/1585047

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FJ

@Natsecjeff

Mar 8, 2023

Women supporters of Imran Khan shaming Pakistani policemen while comparing them with the Indian Army and telling them to go conquer Kashmir.

Background: Currently there's a massive crackdown going on against Imran Khan supporters in Lahore, Pakistan.