Marko Bjegovic Profile picture
Feb 18 17 tweets 12 min read
@LynAldenContact suggests Taylor Rule implies 10.2% FFR citing @stlouisfed FRED (#Fed).

Is 10.2% really what Taylor rule suggests the FFR should be currently at?

A thread.

1/13
Taylor Rule:

FFR = R* + 0.5 (GDP est - potential GDP) + 0.5 (inflation est - 2)

R* - natural interest rate (estimates vary from 2-2.5%); IOW FFR which is neither expansive nor restrictive

#Fed's Dec projections:

GDP est - 0.5%

Potential GDP - 1.8%

Inflation est - 3.1%

2/13
Assuming higher bound of the R* estimates, and #Fed's Dec SEP projections Taylor rule implies:

FFR = 2.4%

This is about 220 bps BELOW the current FFR!

And almost 800 bps BELOW that 10.2% @LynAldenContact quoted.

3/13
Those who follow me regularly know I've been calling for the #Fed to pause hikes back in Sep.

FFR before the Sep meeting was 2.25%-2.5% which is exactly what the #Fed's projection now suggest using the Taylor Rule.

Now the obvious Q is are the #Fed's projections correct?

4/13
At July's meeting #Fed Chair Powell talked about R* of 2.25%.

Some have suggested R* is (a bit) higher than that.

I think there is a probability R* actually moved lower in the meantime given they hiked in Sep and beyond with #disinflation, overdoing it by 225 bps.

5/13
For the sake of this analysis, let's assume R* is at 2.25%, and take latest prints of both #GDP and #inflation.

There is a high probability #GDP will be lower in 2023 and even the #Fed agrees with that.

So 2022 #GDP of 2.1% is likely an overestimate but I'll use it here.

6/13
Also potential #GDP is likely higher than just 1.8% suggested by the #Fed's projections from Dec.

Average post WWII-era #GDP (1947-2022) was much higher at 3.1% which will be my potential #GDP figure.

7/13
For #inflation I'll use the raw #CPI data (unadjusted 3MMA, annualized) which is currently at 1.6% in Jan.



8/13
Since the #Fed doesn't target 2% #CPI, I'll use the (unadjusted) #CPI LT avg so Taylor Rule will be:

FFR = R* + 0.5 (2022 GDP - potential GDP) + 0.5 (Jan CPI - 3.3)

With all the mentioned inputs we get to FFR of only 0.9% using the Taylor Rule.



9/13
To recap, with the #Fed's latest (Dec) projections FFR should be at 2.4% using the Taylor Rule.

With latest inputs FFR using the Taylor Rule should be even lower at 0.9%!

So 10.2% quoted by @LynAldenContact is an incorrect Taylor Rule number.

10/13
Now we come to the crucial Q - how will the #Fed react to the latest #inflation developments?

When will they pause and finally cut rates?

Much of this will, of course, depend on the #inflation going forward.

So where is #inflation going in 2023?

11/13
These threads take a lot of time and effort to write.

If you like the content, please love and retweet to help me spread the message.

12/13
I made an overview of #inflation moving forward and what will the #Fed do about it in my latest workshop.

If interested in getting a recording, message me.



13/13
*Correction:

FFR = R* + Jan CPI + 0.5 (2022 GDP - potential GDP) + 0.5 (Jan CPI - 3.3)

which gives 2.5% FFR using the Taylor Rule.

This is still a lot lower than where 4.5%-4.75% currently, and a whole lot lower than the originally mentioned 10.2%.

H/T @powpowpaws
*Correction

FFR = R* + current inflation + 0.5 (GDP est - potential GDP) + 0.5 (inflation est - 2)

Using #Fed's preferred measure (PCE) current #inflation is 2.1% (3MMA annualized in Dec).
@LynAldenContact *Correction:

Assuming higher bound of the R* estimates, the current PCE and the #Fed's Dec SEP projections Taylor rule implies:

FFR = 4.5%

which is exactly where the current FFR is and almost 600 bps BELOW the 10.2% originally.
@LynAldenContact *Correction

Taylor Rule using the Fed's estimates is 4.5% while the latest inputs give FFR of only 2.5%.

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More from @MBjegovic

Feb 13
The long awaited Jan #CPI report goes out tomorrow (Feb 14) at 8:30 am ET.

Lots of talks about BLS revisions of their seasonal adjustments and whether #inflation is picking up again.

So where will the #CPI print at?

A thread.

1/11
Friday BLS published revised figures for SA #CPI data 2018-2022 with recent figures gathering attention bc they were revised somewhat higher.

This sparked speculations whether they purposely did that to make future figures look lower than they otherwise would be.

2/11
First, I'm not going to speculate why they did it.

Second, I don't think it'll have a meaningful effect on the MoM basis.

But, contrary to what some think, on the YoY basis the new SA #CPI data shows higher chance of a higher number now then it did pre-revisions.

3/11
Read 12 tweets
Jan 27
Q4 #GDP advance print shows 2.9% after 3.2% in Q3.

2 positive Qs after 2 negative Qs suggest there is no #recession.

Now that #inflation is nonexistent, a non-#recession would actually mean a soft landing.

Is that plausible?

A comprehensive 🧵.



1/22
Before we go into the #GDP details, let's delve deeper into the #recession data.

Since 1954 there were 10 recessions and ALL came after the #Fed hiked rates.

There were only 3 instances when their hikes didn't cause a #recession:
1) 1961-1966
2) 1983-1984
3) 1994-1995

2/22
During the latest hiking cycle the #Fed added 425 bps in 9M.

The highest they ever managed to hike in 9M without causing a #recession was (only) 190 bps.

IOW soft landing with this amount of hikes has never happened!

3/22
Read 22 tweets
Jan 12
At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).

But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.

A thread.

1/17
Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).

In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!

2/17 Image
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).

In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.

3/17
Read 17 tweets
Dec 21, 2022
Ever since the #Fed meeting last week 2YR has been below the FFR.

2YR has long served as a proxy for the mkt perceived terminal FFR.

Hence the mkt doesn't trust the #Fed's estimates of 5%+ rates but thinks this is THE terminal rate.

What will the #Fed do?

A thread.

1/14
In the last 46 yrs there were quite a few instances with negative 2YR-FFR spread, 17 to be exact.

Interestingly enough, almost every time the spread went negative, the #Fed actually cut rates.

Let's take a closer look.

2/14
Not counting the current one there were 16 instances with negative 2YR-FFR spread.

Only once out of 16 times the #Fed hiked FFR and that was from Oct 1978.

However, at one point the #Fed started cutting and altogether FFR was unchanged in a period of 23M through Aug 1980.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.

The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!

It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

1/15
On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!

Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.

2/15
3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.

I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target

3/15
Read 16 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
This week we get the 2 most important things that will end this year:
1) FOMC meeting on Wednesday
2) November #CPI report tomorrow that will likely determine what we'll hear by the #Fed on Wednesday

Can Nov #CPI make the #Fed go sub-50 this week?

A thread.

1/11
We had a better-than-expected #CPI in Oct which was only the 2nd beat on the headline, and 3rd beat on the core this yr.

Since beats on the #CPI have been so rare, many (among which @biancoresearch) have been using it as an argument against potential beat again in Nov.

2/11 Image
OTOH rare beats look more like an argument FOR rather than an argument against another beat.

Just based on this, now odds are stacked for the #CPI to come better-than-expected in the coming months.

But does that include Nov?

3/11
Read 11 tweets

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