1/n #Putin points to:
- historic #Russia territories
- USA, NATO
- Ukraine (compared to 3rd Reich)
- ๐บ๐ฆ depicted as "they"
- ๐บ๐ฆ is anti-Russia, coup dโรฉtat
- ๐ท๐บ operation is preemptive
- ๐ท๐บ donโt fight ๐บ๐ฆ people
- war responsibility is ๐บ๐ฆ/๐ช๐บ
- existential issue for ๐ท๐บ
2/n #Putin address (cont.):
- ๐ท๐บ to protect ๐ท๐บ children from the rotten west
- ๐ท๐บ is multinational and all support war
- individual (!) professions were thanked
- citizens & human duty to fight
- Azov Sea is only ๐ท๐บ
- ๐ท๐บ is strong in producing peace
- aware of the numbers of WIA
3/n #Putin address (cont.):
- veterans must be protected
- 2021-2025 MoD development plan mentioned: all units must reach the modernization levels as nuclear SRT
- all best technologies must go to the #RussianArmy
- all talents for victory
- war, information, economy is ๐ช๐บ weapon
4/n #Putin address (cont.):
-๐ช๐บ #sanctions canโt break ๐ท๐บ
- ๐ท๐บ business is stronger
- ๐ท๐บ economy will not repeat the blunders of the past (no war economy / arms race to be introduced)
- cooperation with South East Asia is ๐ท๐บ priority
- ๐ท๐บ will build roads, gas infrastructure
5/n #Putin address now turned heavily economy oriented (cont.):
- new ๐ท๐บ crediting policy
- ๐ท๐บ banking system is stable
- private business effective in supporting ๐ท๐บ
- ๐ท๐บ private business should withdraw from off-shore locations
- no more yachts, but investments in ๐ท๐บ
6/n #Putin address (cont.):
- the West inspired international terrorism to attack USSR and now ๐ท๐บ
- ๐ท๐บ living abroad are treated as 2 category persons
- only in ๐ท๐บ you people will be our priority
- you must reshape your life. Live only in ๐ท๐บ
- ๐ท๐บ is the better civilization
7/n #Putin address (cont.):
- ๐ท๐บ people: we must be united to grow stronger
- ๐ท๐บ culture will be supported. It is priority
- scientific R&D must be freed
- ๐ท๐บ must train/educate more (a million) technicians/workers
- entire education system must be remodeled
8/n #Putin address (cont.):
- ๐ท๐บ demographics needs improvement
- government must support ๐ท๐บ people
- โ๏ธRussia suspends New START (SNV-III) treaty. It is ๐ท๐บ/๐บ๐ธ nuclear arms reduction treaty (signed on 8 April 2010 in Prague)
9/n
#PutinWarCriminal address focused:
- ๐ท๐บ nation morale, economy, education (indoctrination) oriented.
- government & regions tasked.
1/4 ๐งต
๐บ๐ฆ military intelligence head K.Budanov (@DI_Ukraine) interview for @Forbes. Summary:
- ๐ท๐บ objective is to capture entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by 31 March
- mobilized ๐ท๐บ units without heavy arms, just "Urals" and "Kamazs". No more BMPs
2/4 - Medvedev's statement to produce 800 tanks not possible
- a trial batch of 20,000 artillery shells was imported from Iran
- no confirmed ammunition supplies from North Korea
- keeping Bakhmut allows ๐บ๐ฆ to draw the Russians to that area and inflict catastrophic ๐ท๐บ casualties
3/4
- reserves of artillery shells in Russia have decreased to 30%
- ๐ท๐บ missile production is +/- 40 cruise missiles per month
- additional production of about 20 Kalibr missiles per month
1/n
Remember #Prigozhin annoyance? On inadequate ammo deliveries?
Here some angry assessments from ๐ท๐บ: (based on data from ๐ท๐บ MoD for 18-20 Feb)
- delivered: 1660 projectiles for MLRS, 10171 for guns/mortars, 980 for tanks.
2/n - (๐ท๐บ): this is only for 2-5 days, 980 is only for 26 tanks, 1660 is only for 42 BM-21. One mortar needs 100 bombs per day
- ๐ท๐บ MoD declared to meet all Feb 2023 ammo requirements from #WagnerGroup by the end of the month! (so at least some were not met)
3/n - #WagnerGroup itself estimate it regularly is not delivered 80% of requested ammo and these are delayed for 20 days.
๐งต 1/ #Roskomnadzor plans/activity:
- AI (sophisticated software) to spy on runet users, as ๐ท๐บ humans are too slow & too blind
- software: โVeprโ by the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology MIPT should find/locate/identify negative comments against ๐ท๐บ leadership
2/ - pinpoint fake info, deepfake, metadata
- Vepr requirements by FSB & Federal Service for Technical & Export Control
- several new Vepr bot farms to be launched by the end of 2024
- but Vepr only a part of larger systems architecture
- also an Oculus project to recognize pics
3/ - Oculus to scan 200k jpg/png-like files/memes per day
- its planned cost is 445 million rubles in 2022โ2024
- and Oculus to recognize video files by 2024
- currently ๐ท๐บ uses this software: AS MSMK (ะะก ะะกะะ ะฐะฒัะพะผะฐัะธัะตัะบะฐั ัะธััะตะผะฐ ะผะพะฝะธัะพัะธะฝะณะฐ ััะตะดััะฒ ะผะฐััะพะฒัั ะบะพะผะผัะฝะธะบะฐัะธะน)
1/
๐ท๐บ Federal Agency for State Reserves (ะ ะพััะตะทะตัะฒ)
Summary of corruption, pilfering & appropriations. ๐งต
- currently no director, just acting Igor Guchas (ะะณะพั ะััะฐั)
- majority of data is classified (internal structure, what products, how many depots, their locations, etc.)
2/ two key words that facilitate corruption: โะทะฐะบะปะฐะดะบะฐโ (purchase) and โะฒัะฟััะบโ (sale). Participation in all these events is authorized by #FSB. As you may expect, authorization is not for free. And the slices of the cake are not even.
3/ It is a very narrow entourage. All #Putinโs friends and their families. And they decide all the prices. Obviously the profits are located outside Russia. But one false step and one may end in prison. Especially with fuel contracts. Or cheating top management.
1/ #Russian Uralvagonzavod (tank production) urgently needs metal machinery workers. Local Prison Directorate is to select and send 250 workers there.
The situation is dire in all military industry factories. Shortage of electronics, electricity & automation is gravely critical.
2/
๐ท๐บ assess the vacancies to 40k-50k. All retired personnel was requested to return to jobs. Still few want to take the job due to low salaries. Military industry pays machinery operators 40k rubles (โฌ550) a month while non-military - even 80k.
Russians anonymously say:
3/ โI can take it, but I need a salary like a private in [special military operation], three meals a day & free lodging.โ
โI left the job in military industry with 27k rubles. Average worker age was 58 and growing.โ See the assembly of the Mi-28 and guess their age.
1/ #Russian 2023 post-victory assessment (abbreviated)
A. political/economic:
- ๐ท๐บ fights with NATO & in this case the victory is not achievable
- ๐ท๐บ must force NATO to stop supporting ๐บ๐ฆ & it must be the new ๐ท๐บ strategy
- that could lower the quality of life in EU/NATO and
2/ initiate the most severe crisis in capitalism zone
- ๐ท๐บ will survive it, the West not
B. military:
- 20th century concepts of occupation will not work
- when ๐ท๐บ occupies ๐บ๐ฆ, guerrilla movement will not stop,
- some units relocate to Poland, where it canโt be attacked
3/ - ๐ท๐บ rear will never be secured, guerrillas will operate inside ๐ท๐บ/๐บ๐ฆ urban areas
- no secure air space for ๐ท๐บ aircraft
- every single ๐ท๐บ unit/garrison will have to be defended
- no continuous supplies from ๐ท๐บ