Thread by @ZimermanErik

Indeed the battle for #Vuhledar was recognized by both sides as critically important. As we discussed previously, #Russia lost the opportunity of overwhelming the town quickly. #Ukrainian command did not err in passivity but very quickly & significantly reinforced the front, both

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1620645416995016704

in the high-rise town itself and its surroundings, particularly the coal mine with the dominating high ground. The battle has raged fiercely since the original post, with the UA forces mining the approaches to the town. The eastern dachas have traded hands a few times while RU

forces have launched at least two major pushes to try again. As of ten days ago, we can see the intensity of the shelling & fighting on the snowy steppe battlefield. Interestingly, we can see that shelling is highly concentrated along the tree lines bordering the agricultural

fields. The UA forces regularly dig entrenchments along these tree lines to camouflage them from above. RU forces, especially infantry, also typically advance along the same tree lines. Movement across the open space is rare and very dangerous with both sides utilizing drones &

satellites (UA counts on western intel). In the Ugledar region, Russian advances in the open are especially dangerous due to the high observation points provided by the town's tall buildings and the coal mine. In this modern war, to move is to risk being seen (especially in the

open), and if you are seen you are often hit. This makes the sparse cover of the field tree lines in this flat open terrain, the main site for fortification and the the main avenues of advance and retreat for both sides. A moisture index image of the are on the same date shows

us how the intense shelling on the tree lines has significantly reduced the moisture vs the rest of the snow covered terrain. During these fierce fights RU seems to have first attempted to outflank the town from the west after the initial frontal assault. After that, RU forces

to have now been focusing on the path we discussed previously, namely taking the coal mine first (and flanking it from the west itself). Russia also attempted advances from the other side of the salient towards Pobjeda. The positions there seem to be too strongly defended for the

time being and no significant advance was made. Recently we see evidence of additional efforts towards the Vuhledar Pivdennodonbaska coal mine. However, in the last 36 hours or so, UA launched its own strong counteroffensive which was reported to retake the dachas SE of the town,

and even reach the Pavlivka Kashiahach river front and the suburbs between Pavlivka and Mykilske. While this may be the case, I suspect this offensive may have been tacitly "allowed" if not encouraged by the RU forces. The UA troops were too well positioned and defended in

Vuhledar, the Coal mine, and it surroundings. RU forces were suffering significant casualties trying to advance on the positions recently heavily reinforced by UA command. Since Pavlivka and Mykilske are strongly held by RU forces, and connected by a main highway SOUTH of the

river, it seems like a good place to draw enemy forces out and into a kill zone. UA forces advancing southwards would find themselves extending their flanks, exposed to RU forces on both sides while being halted by the wide river at the end of the suburb or dachas. While they may

be excited at the (now rare) prospect of advancing against Russian forces and gaining ground, they would simply be creating a salient for themselves in danger of being cut off, hard to supply, and exposed to enemy attacks from 3 sides. Some purported recent videos may lend some

credence to this theory. There is evidence that RU forces are still holding areas in the NE section of the dachas, and also that they are pushing hard against the coal mine in the NE as well. There are also reports of reinforcements arriving to Mykilske.

In this video we see RU Marines (likely 155th) assaulting UA trenches built as we discussed within the treelines. While the first clip ends when perhaps things don't look as well for the RU forces as the editors wanted, the second clip shows a pretty decent and audacious assault

that includes a flanked approach to the trench which quickly develops into additional envelopment by leading members of the squad. The UA defender no longer holds a defendable position due to this and runs northwards along his trench when the clip ends. Though these videos could

date from any time during the last 10 or 15 days of battle at Vuhledar, I would not be surprised if the UA counteroffensive was subject to a RU ruse. If it wasn't, it still serves the ruse's purpose. Unless the highway can be cut or one of the two RU held towns taken, the UA

forces may have simply opened themselves up for greater casualties by venturing out from their well defended positions where they were causing RU casualties. We shall see... as more information comes out & as the very important battle of Vuhledar rages in the snowy steppe,

crowded into thinned and torn vestiges of what were the lush treelines of the rich fields.

#UkraineRussianWar #RussiaUkraineWar