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Feb 24 5 tweets 3 min read
The #Kremlin also appears to be setting information conditions to stage a false flag operation in occupied #Transnistria, #Moldova. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar022323
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on February 23 that Ukrainian forces are planning to conduct an armed provocation against #Transnistria in the near future.
3/ The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces would dress as Russian military personnel and stage an alleged Russian offensive from positions in #Transnistria. The Moldovan government denied the Russian MoD’s allegations.
4/ The MoD likely sought to foster this false narrative to twist Zelensky‘s warning to Moldovan President Maia Sandu that #Russia was preparing provocations in #Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in #Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
5/ The MoD’s dissemination of this false narrative does not indicate that Putin intends to attack #Moldova—an undertaking for which he lacks military capability—although it points toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the Moldovan state. isw.pub/UkrWar022323

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Feb 26
UK, French, & German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership & could reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms. isw.pub/UkrWar022523 ImageImageImageImage
2/ @WSJ reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that it will provide advanced military equipment, arms, & ammo to #Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine... wsj.com/articles/natos…
3/ ...and falling short of #Ukraine’s aspirations for full #NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings #Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 25
A Russian source capitalized on #China's release of a 12-point peace plan to inaccurately portray China as supporting #Russia's war on #Ukraine on February 24. isw.pub/UkrWar02242023
2/ #China on 24 FEB released a “Position on the Political Settlement of the #Ukraine Crisis" that called for Ukraine and #Russia to respect each other's sovereignty, cease hostilities, resume peace talks, reduce strategic risks, and cease unilateral sanctions.
3/ Advisor to the #Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) head Rodion Miroshnik falsely asserted that #China's peace plan insinuated that #Ukraine and the West are the aggressors, supporting #Russia's framing of the war.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
Eastern #Ukraine: #Luhansk Obl.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks NW of #Svatove and near #Kreminna on 24 FEB.
Russian sources confirmed that Russian forces have split certain Airborne force formations across at least two axes of advance. isw.pub/UkrWar02242023 Image
2/ A #Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on February 23 that unspecified elements of the Russian 76th Airborne Division are operating in unspecified positions on the #Svatove-Kreminna line and that VDV units operate along the entire Svatove-#Kreminna front.
3/ The Russian MoD claimed that unspecified elements of the 76th and 106th Airborne Divisions are operating in the #Bakhmut area in #Donetsk Oblast, confirming ISW's assessment that the 76th and likely the 106th are not deployed as full division-level formations in either area.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
A prominent Russian milblogger attempted to preempt Western discussions of releasing classified information regarding #China’s considerations to provide lethal aid to #Russia. 🧵 (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar022323
2/ The milblogger responded to Chinese Foreign Minister Yi Wang’s denial that #China intends to supply weapons to #Russia & stated that China provides Russia the opportunity to purchase various ammo, industrial drones, field medicine, & protective gear on a commercial basis.
3/ The Russian milblogger claimed that Chinese-made equipment is abundantly available in #Russia and is present throughout the front in #Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
Eastern #Ukraine: #Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued ground attacks around #Bakhmut and made tactical gains in the area on 23 FEB. Russian forces also continued ground attacks in the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City area in western Donetsk Oblast. 🧵(1/8) isw.pub/UkrWar022323
2/ #Bakhmut area:

Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have made incremental advances in the eastern, southern, and southwestern sectors of Bakhmut.
3/ Footage posted by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin on February 23 and later geolocated shows him visiting #Wagner troops in eastern #Bakhmut within 500m of the current frontline, although Prigozhin claimed he was within 400m of the frontline.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 24
Eastern #Ukraine: #Luhansk Oblast

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near #Svatove and near #Kreminna on February 23. 🧵(1 of 5) isw.pub/UkrWar022323
2/ Geolocated footage published on February 23 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions north of Novovodiane (15km south of #Svatove), indicating a limited Russian advance along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
3/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations near #Kreminna itself, #Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and in the Serebrianske forest area (10km south of Kreminna).
Read 5 tweets

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