FACT CHECKING the INTELLECTUAL HONESTY of @DeepakBagla_ (DB), CEO of #Investindia at a Treasury Leadership Forum 2023 was shared by several people with Wow! Link of his presentation at the end.
1/n
2/n
DB Said: "India was 25% of Worlds GDP in 1750s"
TRUE: Indias POPULATION was also ~27% of the Worlds. Table Attached.
Before Industrial Revolution, India was blessed with Fertile Land, Rivers & 4 Seasons/yr. HEAVEN
Europe & N. Asia had Harsh Weather. US was a non-entity.
3/n Look at this Chart of World GDP per Capita from the ancient world to today.

For Instance, In WW2 UK's gdp per capita was $10k (Dominican Republic), in 1870 it was 5k (El Salvador), & before 1800 it was below $2k (Haiti) before 1600 $500 (Somalia)
4/n
DB Said: "India $1Trn GDP took 67yrs, 2nd $Trn took 8yr & 3rd $Trn took 5 years.
FACT: 1960 (~$37bn) to 2006 (~$1trn), 46yrs = 7.3% CAGR.
2nd Trn took 8yr : 2006 to 2014 @ 9% CAGR
3rd Trn took 7yrs : 2014 to 2021 @ 6.5% CAGR

He described POWER OF COMPOUNDING
5/n
What Really Matters is Per Capita Income Growth and Bridging Income inequality...

Per Capital Income barely grew till 2000 when it took off due to IT Services, Autos, Pharma, Private Sector Banks leading to Real Estate and also the lagged impact of 1990s LIBERALIZATION....
6/n
DB Said: "India would be the youngest Country till 2070 & 1.6 billion Population by 2047"

FACT: True that India's population exceeded China BUT, Indias Population also may have PEAKED given that Indias FERTILITY RATE is now 2.1 which is REPLACEMENT rate (NHFS 2021)
7/n
As per the latest 2022 Edition of UN World Population Prospects Report for India, IHME projects a total fertility rate of 1.29 births per woman in 2100 instead of 1.69 in the UN medium scenario, resulting in a population that is 433 million smaller than UN Forecast by 2100.
8/n
Link to UN Report un.org/development/de…
9/n
DB Said "Every Minute 30 ppl are moving from Village to a city in India.. in 10yr we will create a new USA in India.. We need to Give them housing, infra, water, education, Good Environment.

FACT: if Our Fertility Rate declines, Population density will barely Grow.
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More from @TheFactFindr

Mar 2
#AdaniGroup #GQGPartners $2Bn Block Deal is FAILSthe SMELL TEST in my opinion….. here is why

1) Avg PE Multiple of all the PUBLIC Portfolios of #GQGPartners is 7 to 8X …. Adani Stocks bought are at 25x, 144x, 89x & 77x.
2) NO MONEY goes to the Co. ONLY PROMOTER margin call
Let’s look at #GQGPartners in more detail. Here is an interesting Interview & Bloomberg

On the 3rd Minute he discusses Adani. Does not matter in my view & I will explain in new few tweets gqgpartners.com/insights/bloom…
Average Price Earnings (PE) of EM Portfolio is just 7X … all Adani Stocks are 26X to 144X Image
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Mar 2
Agree… you know and I know it’s wishful thinking ..
Just like TAXING FARMERS NET INCOME is wishful thinking
Just like EXPECTING the govt to cut GOLD IMPORT DUTY TO ZERO as wishful thinking … COZ higher the IMPORT DUTY…. The more Profitable GOLD SMUGGLING IS… and being in charge of PORTS and AIRPORTS helps
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
First ADVERTISEMENT for #Elections2024 already out. Very professionally done.
Do you know where I got this Video from ? #NRI WhatsApp group
Am sure they make this in Multiple local languages. Very easy to do now a days with AI Tech. Safe to Say that OPPOSITION is miles behind
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28
#BigPicture #EthanolBlending vs #CoalImports

@NITIAayog, 20% Ethanol Blending wld save India $4bn Annually in FOREX... I hav proved that we are spending 5x more than we are saving

Duh, we just Spent EXTRA $13bn in YTD FY23 in Coal Imports instead of @CoalIndiaHQ doing its Job.
something BIG and FISHY going around Indias COAL IMPORT POLICY, appears to be benefiting U KNOW whom
1) PSU & PVT domestic Coal Linkage Generators are asked to Import atleast 6% coal or else they will NOT GET domestic Coal
2) Import Thermal Co Plants asked to RUN AT 100% CAPACITY
This reminds me of Last year..
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
From the US Macro Weekly.. Image
During the past 20 years, stocks have traded at a 300-to350 basis point premium to Treasuries, which represents the extra compensation that equity investors get for owning a riskier asset. Now, the ERP is just 167 basis Image
High Yield Spreads May Also Be Vulnerable Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 27
#BigPicture #Modinomics Do you know why your #PETROL price is NOT falling despite the 30% Discount #Russian Crude? 3 Charts to explain it.
1/n
Chart 1 is Weekly Brent Price & 4 wk moving avg
Chart 2 is Monthly INDIA crude Oil Basket.
Chart 3 is Russian Oil Discount. ImageImageImage
As you can see from
Chart 1: Apr Brent Px is $104. Today 4wk lagged is $83/bbl
Chart 2: Indian Basket in Apr is also $103, Today in month of Feb its $82.3/bbl
Chart 3: Shows Discount is $31/bbl.
Chart 4: As of today $30 Discount Russian Crude is 28% of India Basket ImageImageImageImage
How come even while foreign Minister @DrSJaishankar justifies Russian Crude saying he has COUNTRY to take care off when buying cheap crude, How come PUBLIC are get ZERO BENEFIT?

Who is benefiting from this Cheap Russian Crude ? #Reliance and (#Russian Owned) #NayaraEnergy. ImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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