Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on March 3, 2023
Situation is still evolving in North & East #Bakhmut
even if it's quite difficult to assess the "true" FEBA line we still can draw some lines...
#UAarmy is behaving according to plan
#UkraineMap

2/ Ukr repelled Ru attacks in the areas of #Bilohorivka in Luhansk region and #Spirne, #OrikhovoVasylivka, #DubovoVasylivka, #Hryhorivka, #Bohdanivka and #Bakhmut (several directions except the one where they Voluntarily decided to withdraw) in Donetsk region.
situation is ok

3/ Also Ru shelled the area or directly : #Rozdolivka, #Vasyukivka, #Zaliznyanske, #OrikhovoVasylivka, #DubovoVasylivka,#Ivanivske, #ChasivYar Yar, #Klishchiyivka, #Kurdyumivka, #Ozaryanivka, #Dyliyivka, #Mayorsk
& #NiuYork (like forever & ever with zero success)

4/ so the situation around #Bakhmut looks like something like this :
so as explained weeks ago , Ru are progressing to the East part of the city only because that was the Plan, and also because to be fair, Ru have made real progress in the area of #Khromove & #Bohdanivka
so

5/ basically they are going to achieve a nice & clean draw back & still maintain the pressure on the south and north, while passing the #Bakhmutovka
but there is still plenty of "meat" to fight for.
to get "confused" by the Turd-in-Tuxedo (careful i have copyrighted that one 😄

6/ quite note about #Prigozhin so basically, next time you watch him make a vid of "dowtown" remember like explained 10k times that he is just living rent free in Western minds because even in Russ, gen news don't give him more credit than to regular Ru army doing the job there.

7/ back to #Bakhmut, so what we are witnessing right now is simply a move ( i found an image today to explain to some friends) like a drawer, sliding out...
that's simple.
i hope you can see that this is very steady move. still solid move. no panic whatsoever.
so relax..

8/ also for the ones, who were thinking about the problems of the roads, there are not such problems right now, there is still plenty of possibility, even if it's true it's harder & harder and lots of vehicles are getting hit in different areas.. but lights ones can moves there.

9/ also infantry can still go through the fields if need be.
So now, about where they will go.. well not far actually, this could take another week or two to stay in some part of #Bakhmut. like in the south west part, also troops there are handling Ru so with other fighters they

10/ can fight in the outskirts for a long time...
so as long as they are out of the "pocket" they can still give really really hard time to Russians troops.
so the "fun" is not over yet! we can hear abt #Bakhmut area up to 1st day of Spring!

11/ Also we have to understand the global situation and to remind ourselves that the battle of #ChassivYar for example is going to be another full months, and also as important as #Popasna was.
there, dozens of best BTGs back then, were annihilated !

12/ and past that first line of defense, Ru will have to deal with what was build as an enormous arc of defense going in front of #Kramatorsk or #Sloviansk.
so some Russians are right now to jump that high like stupid Turd-in-Tuxedo.
because it's far far from being over... far.

13/ you can read it here some examples of some Russians not being over confident :

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631711474241482753

14/ also in the other areas : RuOrcs unsuccessfully attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the areas of #Krasnohorivka, #Kamyanka, #Avdiyivka, #Maryinka and #Pobyeda. (full map to come this w-e)

15/ & also shelled several settlements, including #Dvorichna, #Kupyansk and #Krokhmalne in Kharkiv region and #Makiivka, #Kreminna and #Bilohorivka areas in #Luhansk region.

16/ So the situation in #Luhansk is also very very difficult to assess right now as there are some constant moves there. it reminds me what i called for months the "tango" that gives me headache. constant back & forth. Also videos and geoloc does not help much there bc of so many

17/ moves.. but this is approximately the situation (i would not bet my house on the precise limits there though)
what is a good sign is that all indicators are "green" despite all attacks.
Ru r not finding their way to really have a deep impact forward!
Hayday morning report:

18/ last Gen staff report :
part 1 & 2

19/ In the #Lviv region, #Zelensky visited #Ukrainian defenders, who, in particular, fought in the #Bakhmut direction.
(sorry the vid is too long)

20/ and now some recap of the week...
this morning :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1631586926057730050

21/ march 2

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1631225920009773061

22/ March 1st

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1631031846136868866

23/ also this thread that might stay relevant for awhile so we are going to keep it in tab :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1631022711316029440

24/ more pb to come this spring with more Chinese and Iran help... so we still need to keep an eye on this one too :
#Drones

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1630941121760067585

25/ and the 28th of February... last one to come here :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1630611492386095105

26/ i forgot

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1630161426793873412

27/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631757166217424900