Thread by @HeliosRunner

!! 1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on March 5, 2023
#RussianArmy is still trying to move forward in a dozen of different areas only & put maximum pressure but have really minor success here & there. North #Bakhmut area one of them.

#UkraineMap

2/ But first thing first - i simply wanted to explain that i thought i would be able to do -at the end of February to mark the one year attack of Russia- a gen recap & maybe also to close the #Bakhmut chapter, but let's face it, Ru with 100k are not even to deliver on that :)

3/ being more serious as you can see the first map, i put #Ukrainian "victories" in almost all the hot points, because even if Ru advanced on those areas last couple weeks, let's be real. they are stalling everywhere. still no noticeable gain since #Soledar.

4/ I made this map back at end July 2022 and made "correction" on it this w-e so you can evaluate yourself one more time, what do they have accomplished since then..
lots of people are talking Ad Nauseam about #Bakhmut but in the gen context of this long war, this is almost not

5/ "not" relevant.
if we really analyze the dynamics & the maps, we can see an aggressor that is auto depleting it's entire army for a really marginal gain. (of course there is much too say abt long term strategy but on one year mark and counting, they are simply almost "stuck")

6/ So when i hear people talking about #Bakhmut being targeted for months and months it is actually way worse than you think.
we all have the kind of map (below) in mind to tell us abt "direct" immediate advances toward the city & that"s part of the reason why it is crystalizing

7/ our attention, but one more time we forget to see this in more global context. To literally zoom out physically & chronologically
i remember making this map (wildly remade by several back then.) in early May, trying to assess what the #Russians could really try to gain because

8/ It was really obvious even then (shortly after #Marioupol being seized) that the way they were conducting their operations and the material's loss rate, it would certainly mean they will have to go smaller & smaller on specific areas in order to try to gain few more places.

9/ So what i want to say here, & i know it's not easy to grasp it for certain people is that actually they are not failing for 6 or 7 months to reach #Bakhmut ... they are failing since Mid May & what was back then their objectives !
this is what we need to realize. they are way

10/ below their own expectations.

this is why by the way i make my "countdowns" on my Excel sheet. because the first one was their estimated "peak" (i made it mid March) only with their "Opex" army, then with "reinforcements" we had 2nd count just after July (coincided almost

11/ exactly with their gain on #Severodonetsk #Lyssitchansk and then their stall short after that)
then 3rd countdown was estimated to End August mid September bc they were going according to simple calculus to be below 50% of their initial forces (and then Putin declared Gen mob

12/ long story short. right now they are killing the entire first wave of mobiks and damaging even more the core of their army... and they are "forcing" themselves to fight on a land they have no really control about. only the number of men is maintaining the front line.

13/ so i wanted to tell it again because i told this almost year ago, what we are witnessing is a "trait" "stripe" a thin red line on Ukrainian territory. but when we zoom out, contrary to the maps showing it always full red, there is not much behind and sometimes even nothing.

14/ i said this also : look what happened to Soviets, US in Afghanistan or in Vietnam, Ru are not in their place. they do not have 2 millions inhabitants there, ready to fight for them on this ground. they will have to come with their own civilians recently made military.
right

15/ now they are not so much impacted in their country because we have not reached yet the half million people gone.. but it'll come. and they will realize they are just red ants, in a territory full of Ukrainians.
so always look at them like that.
thin red line..

16/ as said this week if you even zoom further away you'll see it was already there, a long ongoing process of removing Ru tumor from this part of #Ukrainian body is taking years. but they are the one, going down & down & down much much faster than Ukr and much faster than we all

17/ thought was even possible one year ago.
so yes it takes time to treat and heal.. but it'll come.
Also Putin is not going to live forever (even if as a dictator he wants to kind of believe it) & the rats will just have to move away one day...
right now

18/ don't listen to guys talking about percentage of territory gain or losses as it makes zero sense whatsoever (out of curiosity) like i hear this morning
there is nothing behind the thin red line.
As i said in Sept, it'll be sad & terrible & take lot of time now, but, Ru are

19/ not going anywhere like that..
by next year the iceberg will be an ice cube (materials) and men won't do shit.

That's about it for the first part of this year Recap.
next part coming soon.