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Mar 6 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
NEW: #Ukrainian forces may be conducting a limited fighting withdrawal in eastern #Bakhmut & are continuing to inflict high casualties against advancing #Russian forces, but it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city. 🧵1/6
2/ The #Ukrainian defense of #Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume #Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
3/ The #Russian military’s attritional campaign to capture #Bakhmut has likely prompted Russian milbloggers to adopt more realistic expectations for further Russian operations in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
4/ The #Russian offensive to capture #Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
5/ If Russian forces manage to secure #Bakhmut they could then attempt renewed pushes towards one or both of Kostyantynivka or Slovyansk but would struggle with endemic personnel and equipment constraints. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
6/ The likely imminent culmination of #Russia's offensive around #Bakhmut before or after its fall, the already culminated Russian offensive near #Vuhledar, & the stalling Russian offensive in #Luhansk are likely setting robust conditions for a future #Ukrainian counteroffensive.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 7
#Prigozhin has ramped up efforts to disseminate #Wagner’s militarism and ideology in #Russia via its role in Bakhmut. He is among the most extreme of the pro-war nationalists & the severe degradation of elite Wagner forces would have positive ramifications beyond the battlefield.
2/ The #WagnerGroup has recently opened several recruitment centers at sports clubs throughout #Russia, opened a youth branch, and is visiting schoolchildren to lecture them about #Wagner’s structure and show them unfiltered combat footage from Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030623
3/ #Wagner’s success in #Bakhmut thus far has given #Prigozhin a major advantage in the information space, bolstering his reputation and increasing his popularity in a way that will likely have long-term impacts in the #Russian domestic sphere.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 7
Some Western reports have recently suggested that Ukraine is expending its own elite manpower & scarce equipment in #Bakhmut on mainly Wagner prison recruits who are mere cannon fodder, noting that such an exchange is to Ukr's disadvantage even at high ratios of Ru to Ukr losses.
2/ That observation is valid in general, although the pool of #Russian convict recruits suitable for combat is not limitless and the permanent elimination of tens of thousands of them in #Bakhmut means that they will not be available for more important fights.
3/ #Ukrainian intelligence has supported @TheStudyofWar's assessment that #Russian forces near #Bakhmut have recently changed tactics and committed higher-quality special forces operators and elements of conventional forces to the fight. isw.pub/UkrWar030623
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 7
#Donetsk Oblast

Update on the tactical situation in #Bakhmut:

Russian forces continued ground attacks in & around Bakhmut on March 6 and secured gains but still have not succeeded in encircling the city. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar030623 ImageImage
2/ Geolocated footage posted on March 6 shows #WagnerGroup infantry hanging a #Wagner flag and posing in front of the T-34 tank monument in eastern #Bakhmut, confirming the Wagner has advanced westward along Maksyma Horkoho street towards Bakhmut’s city center. Image
3/ Ukraine reported on March 6 that Russian forces are storming Bakhmut despite continued losses and that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; near Zalizianske (7km NW), Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km NW), and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km NW); and Ivanivske (5km west). Image
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 7
NEW: #Ukraine will continue to defend #Bakhmut for now. While Bakhmut itself isn't intrinsically important operationally or strategically, Ukraine’s fight for it has become strategically significant due to the current composition of Russian forces there.🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar030623 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Taking #Bakhmut is necessary but not sufficient for further Russian advances in #Donetsk Oblast, and #Russian forces have already taken such heavy losses fighting for the city that their attack will very likely culminate after they have secured it—if not before.
3/ The loss of #Bakhmut is not, therefore, of major operational or strategic concern to #Ukraine, as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and others have observed.
Read 14 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 6
#Russia's offensive to capture #Bakhmut will likely culminate whether its forces capture the city or not. The #Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving #Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative. 🧵(1/9)
2/ The conventional #Russian military recently massed and lost significant numbers of mobilized personnel for a since-culminated offensive push near #Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
3/ Russian "major" offensives in the #Kupyansk, #Svatove, and #Kreminna directions in #Luhansk Oblast are also failing to generate any significant successes on the frontlines.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 6
#Donetsk Oblast:

#Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern bank of the #Bakhmutka River given recent geolocated footage of the destruction of the railway bridge over the river in northeastern #Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
2/ #Russian war correspondents and milbloggers claimed that Russian forces captured eastern, northern, and southern parts of #Bakhmut on March 5 and claimed to be reporting from positions in eastern Bakhmut, but @TheStudyofWar cannot independently verify these claims at this time
3/ Geolocated footage showed that #WagnerGroup forces continued to make advances in northeastern #Bakhmut and advanced near the Stupky railway station on March 5.
Read 6 tweets

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