Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Russia's offensive to capture #Bakhmut will likely culminate whether its forces capture the city or not. The #Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving #Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative. 🧵(1/9)

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1632576649769230337

2/ The conventional #Russian military recently massed and lost significant numbers of mobilized personnel for a since-culminated offensive push near #Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023

3/ Russian "major" offensives in the #Kupyansk, #Svatove, and #Kreminna directions in #Luhansk Oblast are also failing to generate any significant successes on the frontlines.

4/ The #Russian military relied on #WagnerGroup forces to make any advances in the nine-month effort for #Bakhmut and has since reinforced Wagner forces in Bakhmut with Russian airborne elements and mobilized personnel.

5/ #Russian forces likely lack the capability to further reinforce the #Bakhmut area significantly without pulling forces from another area of the front line due to the lack of untapped reserves...

6/ ...with the possible exception of the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division that was last reported in #Luhansk but uncommitted to the fighting.

7/ The culmination of all these efforts further supports @TheStudyofWar's assessment that #Russian forces likely lack the combat power to sustain more than one simultaneous offensive.

8/ The #Russian effort against #Bakhmut does not further the Russian military’s operational or strategic battlefield aims, and significant #Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area undermine any tactical significance that capturing Bakhmut likely has for Russian forces.

9/ #Ukrainian forces will likely have a window of opportunity to seize the battlefield initiative and launch a counteroffensive when the #Russian effort around #Bakhmut culminates either before or after taking the city. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023