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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Mar 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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NEW | The Battle of #Bakhmut may severely degrade the Wagner Group’s best forces, depriving #Russia of some of its most effective and most difficult-to-replace shock troops. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar : criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of #Svatove and near #Kreminna.
#Russian forces secured territorial gains in #Bakhmut but have not yet encircled the city or forced #Ukrainian forces to withdraw.
#Russian forces continue struggling to maintain fire control over the #Dnipro River Delta in #Kherson Oblast.
#Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on March 6 that #Ukrainian forces have massed 12,000 troops for an offensive push towards the Sea of #Azov coastline in late March or early April.

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Aug 7
Qatari-brokered peace talks between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will likely drag out as both sides have been unwilling to make concessions on the central issue of M23’s territorial control, making a sustainable long-term agreement unlikely.

The lack of clarity around this issue will likely be a major obstacle in the upcoming round of talks tentatively scheduled for August 8.🧵Image
The DRC and M23 signed a Qatari-brokered statement of principles in late July that committed both sides to a ceasefire but deferred negotiations over the “root causes” of the conflict to be resolved in the second stage of talks aimed at reaching a final peace deal by August 18. 2/8
The two sides will likely be unable to clearly resolve the issue of M23’s territorial control and other points of divergence in a sustainable fashion that includes agreed-upon dispute-resolution mechanisms within the 10-day time frame in mid-August, however.

The DRC and M23 have refused to make major concessions on territorial control in the talks and have signaled they are unlikely to do so. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 31
NEW | The United States sanctioned Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani’s son, Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, and his multinational shipping network on July 30 for generating tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the Shamkhani family and the Iranian regime. (1/6) Image
The US Treasury Department sanctioned 12 individuals, 52 vessels, and 53 entities, including 15 shipping firms, tied to Hossein Shamkhani’s network to disrupt Iranian and Russian exports of petroleum products and other goods. (2/6)
Hossein Shamkhani manages a fleet of oil tankers and containerships through several UAE-based companies. One of the companies is involved in shipping missiles, drone components, and dual-use goods from Iran to Russia to support Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian oil. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 28
NEW | Al Shabaab captured Mahas, a district capital in central Somalia that the Somali government and its allies had controlled since 2014.

The advance sets conditions for the group to escalate attacks on major towns across central Somalia, including along the Ethiopian border. Image
Mahas is the group's latest gain in central Somalia this year, where it has recaptured swaths of territory that it lost in 2022.

The group reconnected its territory in central Somalia and southern Somalia in March and recaptured the district capitals Adan Yabal and Moqokori in April and early July, respectively.

CTP warned after the fall of Moqokori that al Shabaab would target Mahas in the "coming days and weeks."
Meanwhile, US forces have been concentrating their counterterrorism efforts on northern Somalia and supporting local Puntland State forces that are fighting IS's Somalia Province.

@USAfricaCommand conducted a rare ground raid that captured the IS Somalia finance emir on July 26.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 5
NEW | An unspecified high-ranking Iranian official cited by Amwaj Media on July 4 reported that Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the US would not strike Iran. 🧵Image
Such a guarantee would be inconsistent with the Trump administration’s stated position on future strikes on Iran’s facilities. The unspecified Iranian official told Amwaj that Iran is seeking a guarantee in negotiations that the United States will not conduct any additional strikes on Iran.”
European officials are concerned that Iran may try to develop a nuclear weapon to deter future attacks and that Iran may be able to build a weapon in secret unless a nuclear agreement enables the IAEA to resume inspections.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 28
NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.Image
Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.
Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian military and security officials across multiple branches, likely in an effort to degrade Iran’s command and control structure. Iranian media confirmed on June 28 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed 56 Artesh members, including at least three Artesh generals and 16 conscript soldiers. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on June 28 that Israeli strikes killed Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Intelligence Organization Deputy Director Brigadier General Mehdi Nemati. Nemati reportedly fought alongside former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq and Syria for several years.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 28
US and Israeli airstrikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat if Iran chooses to rebuild its nuclear program.

The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though it could do so if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility or retains surviving centrifuges at another facility.

It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel’s decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.Image

A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israel seeks to retain its air superiority over Iranian airspace, prevent reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and inhibit Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to conduct retaliatory attacks against a potential Israeli strike.
The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime’s paranoia about Israeli infiltration.

First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli “spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.
Read 4 tweets

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