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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Mar 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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NEW | The Battle of #Bakhmut may severely degrade the Wagner Group’s best forces, depriving #Russia of some of its most effective and most difficult-to-replace shock troops. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar : criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of #Svatove and near #Kreminna.
#Russian forces secured territorial gains in #Bakhmut but have not yet encircled the city or forced #Ukrainian forces to withdraw.
#Russian forces continue struggling to maintain fire control over the #Dnipro River Delta in #Kherson Oblast.
#Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on March 6 that #Ukrainian forces have massed 12,000 troops for an offensive push towards the Sea of #Azov coastline in late March or early April.

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 24
NEW: Building Syria’s Army | Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

This does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice, however. 🧵 Image
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It is not immediately clear what groups outside of HTS-led and SNA-led structures participated in the meeting, nor is it clear what concrete steps the groups agreed to as part of dissolving themselves and merging under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.
HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units as a way to ameliorate concerns about losing power among various leaders.
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 24
NEW I The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. 1/8 Image
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The sources cited by a Syrian journalist claimed that the interim government will avoid any negotiation to establish a decentralized system that grants some autonomy to Kurdish-governed areas. 2/8
HTS and Turkey have called for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which CTP-ISW previously identified as implicitly demanding that the SDF disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous organization. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 20
NEW | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria. Erdogan said that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance to this end. 🧵 (1/7) Image
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The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River. (2/7)
The SDF deployed forces to clear towns of opposition forces east of Raqqa City on December 19. Local sources reported that opposition forces took control of Madan and five other nearby towns from the SDF. The SDF had seized these areas from the Assad regime on December 6. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 20
NEW I Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier when asked to reflect on his 2022 decision to attack. 1/12 Image
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Putin insisted that negotiations with Ukraine must be based on the same demands he made before the invasion and at the moment of Russia's greatest territorial gains, despite the fact that Ukraine has secured Kyiv and liberated much of the territory his forces held at that time. 2/12
Putin's insistence on Ukraine's complete surrender reflects his belief that Russia is winning and will outlast Ukrainian and Western resolve. Putin will not likely accept a lesser settlement unless Ukrainian forces inflict other significant battlefield setbacks on Russia and demonstrate to him that he cannot win militarily. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 20
NEW I Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces. 1/6 Image
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Turkey is threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas while also claiming that it will not intervene if HTS addresses the concerns Turkey has about the SDF "properly." 2/6
HTS called for a unitary state without federal regions, which is an implicit demand for the SDF to disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous region. This is consistent with Turkish demands and is the method by which the SDF could avoid a Turkish intervention. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 19
NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4: @Maxar) 🧵⬇️Image
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Russian shipments from Syria to Libya are likely setting conditions for Russia to mitigate or replace its reliance on its Syrian bases by upgrading Russian positions in Libya and securing permission for a Russian naval base on Libya’s Mediterranean coast. 2/8 Image
US officials told @WSJ on December 18 that Russian cargo planes have flown radars for S-400 & S-300 interceptor systems & other air defense equipment to Libya.

Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has asked for air defense systems in negotiations for a Russian naval base in Libya. 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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