Thread by @AnkitMadX

Food for thought:
1. SVB will be taken care. It's a 20-30 Bn loss Bill at best..

2. Bigger questions to figure:

2a. How will US govt fund 4-5% interest rate on $31T debt ?

2b. Who has absorbed/un/accounted MTM loss on $31T debt in last 9 months? How many r swimming naked?

2c. FED Res equity will turn negative due to losses on its bond portfolio. Powell said FED can pay bills with negative equity/have negative income.. (aisi deewangi dekhi nahi moment 🤣)

3. Can FED have negative equity, it's a Central Bank of $ world's reserve currency

4. $ depreciation much faster than Inflation is the only way out to fund massive deficits.. Rest of the World will need big incentive in form of high rates and weaker dollar to Buy and hold US assets again

5. 1971 - $ debasement was treachery
2001 was d first big lesson wasted

2008 was patched/band aided

2020 was abusing the system
(US debt/GDP) > 120%

2023 is Reset most likely 🤞

All real things shd be valued much higher at current DXY or DXY must go much much lower

6. Developed markets behaving like Emerging markets and vice versa

7. Therefore about time for a Reserve Currency out of Emerging market (aka developed market)

8. Inflation problem will continue as China becomes strong and #USDCNY goes to 6.50 and other EM's doing much better

9. A fed pivot will only weaken dollar more

Views welcome

Feedback/ Views / additions welcome
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