🚨Study on future options and costs of energy imports for Germany🚨
Our study comparing future options for energy imports to Germany and their costs has finally passed peer-review and is now published.
A thread 🧵
Our study comparing future options for energy imports to Germany and their costs has finally passed peer-review and is now published.
A thread 🧵
🔑Key findings
- Germany has many options for import
- No one-size-fits-all: Costs strongly depend on what and from where you import
- Costs for renewable alternatives and prices for fossil counterparts converged in last year
(visualisation created with AI b/c it's trendy)
- Germany has many options for import
- No one-size-fits-all: Costs strongly depend on what and from where you import
- Costs for renewable alternatives and prices for fossil counterparts converged in last year
(visualisation created with AI b/c it's trendy)
↩ Service: Availability
Study is open-access, available in @PLOSONE :
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
All code and data of course are published as #opensource and #OpenData , see the article for details. @openmod
Together with @Michael_Dueren (@jlugiessen) and @nworbmot (@TUBerlin)
Study is open-access, available in @PLOSONE :
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
All code and data of course are published as #opensource and #OpenData , see the article for details. @openmod
Together with @Michael_Dueren (@jlugiessen) and @nworbmot (@TUBerlin)
❗Service note
All figures in thread are from paper, CC-BY-4.0, see link above, if not mentioned otherwise.
This is an updated tweet of the earlier (pre-print) version tweeted here:
All figures in thread are from paper, CC-BY-4.0, see link above, if not mentioned otherwise.
This is an updated tweet of the earlier (pre-print) version tweeted here:
https://twitter.com/euronion42/status/1412329081027371008
🚢Challenge
#Germany and #Europe heavily rely on importing #FossilFuels from outside the continent.
This will hardly change, not even with an #EnergyTransition. We’ll keep needing to import energy.
Which energy?
From where?
At what costs?
Fig eurostat: europa.eu/!xvdKqF
#Germany and #Europe heavily rely on importing #FossilFuels from outside the continent.
This will hardly change, not even with an #EnergyTransition. We’ll keep needing to import energy.
Which energy?
From where?
At what costs?
Fig eurostat: europa.eu/!xvdKqF
🔭Study scope
We look into the future of importing energy carriers produced from renewable energy + CO2 captured from the atmosphere.
We compared imports of 9 energy commodities from 7 countries with the costs for producing them in Germany.
We look into the future of importing energy carriers produced from renewable energy + CO2 captured from the atmosphere.
We compared imports of 9 energy commodities from 7 countries with the costs for producing them in Germany.
🔭Energy carriers compared:
- #hydrogen (g) and (l)
- #hydrogen carrier by #LOHC
- Synthetic #methane (g) and (l)
- #methanol
- #ammonia
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels (#eFuels , e.g. diesel/gasoline/kerosene)
- #hydrogen (g) and (l)
- #hydrogen carrier by #LOHC
- Synthetic #methane (g) and (l)
- #methanol
- #ammonia
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels (#eFuels , e.g. diesel/gasoline/kerosene)
🪔Resulting LCoE
If you focus on the energy content the range of costs for import is broad:
- H2 (g) by pipeline is cheapest, starting at 36 EUR/MWh
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels is most expensive with costs up to 310 EUR/MWh
Depends on assumptions: WACC (5%,10%) & year 2030 - 2050
If you focus on the energy content the range of costs for import is broad:
- H2 (g) by pipeline is cheapest, starting at 36 EUR/MWh
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels is most expensive with costs up to 310 EUR/MWh
Depends on assumptions: WACC (5%,10%) & year 2030 - 2050
🪔Resulting LCoE
If you focus on the energy content the range of costs for import is broad:
- H2 (g) by pipeline is cheapest, starting at 36 EUR/MWh
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels is most expensive with costs up to 310 EUR/MWh
Depends on assumptions: WACC (5%,10%) & year 2030 - 2050
If you focus on the energy content the range of costs for import is broad:
- H2 (g) by pipeline is cheapest, starting at 36 EUR/MWh
- Fischer-Tropsch fuels is most expensive with costs up to 310 EUR/MWh
Depends on assumptions: WACC (5%,10%) & year 2030 - 2050
🔎Cost compositions
With a closer look a the costs we can identify cost drivers
1. RES costs for electricity
2. Chemical synthesis
3. Chemical feedstock storage
More flexible syn. processes would reduce costs of 1. + 3.
Electrolysis also contributes, but is of less relevance.
With a closer look a the costs we can identify cost drivers
1. RES costs for electricity
2. Chemical synthesis
3. Chemical feedstock storage
More flexible syn. processes would reduce costs of 1. + 3.
Electrolysis also contributes, but is of less relevance.
👁️Costs trade-Off (1/2)
Notice trade-off transport vs. synthesis costs in the figure above:
Simple forms (electricity, hydrogen) are cheap to produce but costly to transport.
Complex molecules (e.g. methane, methanol) are expensive to produce but cheap to transport and store.
Notice trade-off transport vs. synthesis costs in the figure above:
Simple forms (electricity, hydrogen) are cheap to produce but costly to transport.
Complex molecules (e.g. methane, methanol) are expensive to produce but cheap to transport and store.
👁️Costs trade-Off (2/2)
This will be important. Depending on your intended energy use case.
Individuals and society need to ask themselves:
- Do we import for long-term storage?
- Continuous electricity generation?
- Baseload chemical feedstocks?
- Small and easy distribution?
This will be important. Depending on your intended energy use case.
Individuals and society need to ask themselves:
- Do we import for long-term storage?
- Continuous electricity generation?
- Baseload chemical feedstocks?
- Small and easy distribution?
⚗️Chemical feedstocks
Sometimes you want #hydrogen, not #energy.
Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) per kg H2 including cracking for indirect H2 imports:
- Best: import hydrogen directly
- non-H2 molecules more expensive
- Methanol becomes competitive with Methane and Ammonia
Sometimes you want #hydrogen, not #energy.
Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) per kg H2 including cracking for indirect H2 imports:
- Best: import hydrogen directly
- non-H2 molecules more expensive
- Methanol becomes competitive with Methane and Ammonia
⚖️Comparison with prices 2022
When we started with the study in 2020, our costs > commodity market prices.
This changed with the energy crisis. Costs and prices now overlap under conservative (Ammonia, Methane) or favourable assumptions (Methanol, Fischer-Tropsch fuels).
When we started with the study in 2020, our costs > commodity market prices.
This changed with the energy crisis. Costs and prices now overlap under conservative (Ammonia, Methane) or favourable assumptions (Methanol, Fischer-Tropsch fuels).
⛰️Sensitivities
Results are sensitive to our assumptions.
Lower WACC and RES costs are key determinants of the final costs.
Especially on WACC is something political instruments have a strong leverage on.
Results are sensitive to our assumptions.
Lower WACC and RES costs are key determinants of the final costs.
Especially on WACC is something political instruments have a strong leverage on.
📋Supply chain modelling
Each energy supply chain (ESC) individually, islanded, without coupling to other system. Considered major steps for each ESC with costs + energy/material demand.
E.g. for Ammonia by ship
Each energy supply chain (ESC) individually, islanded, without coupling to other system. Considered major steps for each ESC with costs + energy/material demand.
E.g. for Ammonia by ship
📋More on methods
For all countries:
* land availability analysis
* modelled electricity supply curves for 2030-50
* local electricity demand prioritised
* hourley modelling
* renewables modelled using GlobalEnergyGIS and ERA5 data
* linear capacity invest. optim. using #PyPSA
For all countries:
* land availability analysis
* modelled electricity supply curves for 2030-50
* local electricity demand prioritised
* hourley modelling
* renewables modelled using GlobalEnergyGIS and ERA5 data
* linear capacity invest. optim. using #PyPSA
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