Thread by @JamesLy16155383

1/ A 🧵on Ohrid threats: The upcoming Ohrid meeting between #Vučić, #Kurti, and Borrell about the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan for #Kosovo is Dead On Arrival. A recently leaked EU document contains threatened actions about what the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 could do if #Serbia and Kosovo don't sign on.

2/ It is highly probable that the meeting will kick the can down the road to late 2023. Yet, the hype leading up to this meeting and the leaked EU document indicate a high level of pressure on Belgrade and Pristina to deliver, due to 🇷🇺 illegitimate and unprovoked invasion of🇺🇦

3/ The document says that if 🇷🇸 and 🇽🇰 do not sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan, the 🇪🇺 (and 🇺🇸?) will: "Suspend the integration path and throw away associated processes and benefits. Isolation and internal turmoil will soon follow".

4/ Threats vs 🇷🇸: "Will create an opportunity for Kosovo to grow without needing to work with Belgrade. If it rejects the agreement, Serbia will also lose the five non-recognisers. Regardless of the outcome, the EU/NATO will eventually speak with a single voice on Kosovo."

5/ Threats vs 🇽🇰: "Kosovo must... honor past agreements [ASM]... refusal to do so can have severe consequences for Kosovo's future... Western partners will lack the incentive to support Kosovo's further growth... Kosovo could see a reversal of progress in some areas."

6/ The question remains as to what options the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 have available. Given the high probability that the talks will fail, the west will try to put lipstick on the pig by coming up with some meaningless declaration on principles or a roadmap.

7/ The 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 can take back recently given carrots . 🇽🇰 recently received visa-free travel to the 🇪🇺. For 🇷🇸 it could mean revoking $2.2 billion in recently announced 🇪🇺assistance/investments and having the 5 🇪🇺non-recognizers recognize🇽🇰.

8/ The threats against 🇷🇸 are weak sauce and demonstrate that the EU process (Lajčák and Várhelyi) have subtly favored 🇷🇸 in an effort to place that country in a leading role in the Balkans, whether or not that is acceptable to 🇷🇸neighbors. Which it is not.

9/ So what will follow the Ohrid meeting? It is doubtful that the EU will be able to obtain the consensus necessary from all its members to take action against Serbia. And it is highly likely that Kurti will once beat Vučić at the game of chicken.

https://twitter.com/JamesLy16155383/status/1636403646677106690

10/ So break out lots of lipstick, cause it's gonna be one big pig.