Balkan Gonzo Profile picture
Mar 19, 2023 19 tweets 7 min read Read on X
🧵1/ #Ohrid Outcome: a big fat nothing-burger. #Serbia's #Vučić announced ahead of time he wouldn't sign anything. He kept his word. This made #Kosovo's #Kurti seem cooperative.
2/ Even Albania's Edi Rama seemed skeptical of the "progress" that was achieved.
3/ Both the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 had played up the meeting ahead of time, and a leaked 🇪🇺 document indicated that the west was serious and significant penalties would apply if either side refused to sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan at Ohrid.
4/ Even though Vučić refused to sign anything, the West insisted on some sign of "progress". Following nearly 10 hours of meetings, Borrell announced: "We have a deal".
5/ The deal consists of a short "Implementation Annex of the Agreement on the path to normalisation of relations", i.e., window dressing to present the image of progress, i.e., lipstick on a pig.
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/belgrade-…
6/ The text: "This Annex constitutes an integral part of the Agreement. Kosovo and Serbia fully commit to honour all Articles of the Agreement and this Annex, and implement all their respective obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex expediently and in good faith."
7/ "The Parties take note that the Agreement and the Implementation Annex will become integral parts of the respective EU accession processes of 🇽🇰 and 🇷🇸." Those are empty calories, particularly given the dismal state of both countries in the 🇪🇺 accession process.
8/ "The Parties note that immediately after the adoption of the Agreement and this Annex, the EU Facilitator will start the process to amend the Chapter 35 benchmarks for 🇷🇸 to reflect 🇷🇸’s new obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex."
9/ "The agenda of 🇽🇰’s Special Group on Normalisation will equally reflect 🇽🇰’s new obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex. The Parties agree to endorse the Declaration on Missing Persons, as negotiated under the 🇪🇺-facilitated Dialogue, as a matter of urgency."
10/ Both of these sentences are fluff meant to satisfy the bureaucratic Mandarins in Brussels and State Department and demonstrate that at least some "progress" had been achieved. They are fig leaves.
11/ This fig leaf of progress is important to the bureaucracies. Otherwise, they will need to report failure, which could have significant career implications. More importantly, if the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 openly admitted failure, then they would feel obliged to shift away from the carrots
12/ and towards the sticks mentioned in the leaked 🇪🇺 document for the sake of their own credibility. At present, several 🇪🇺 EU member states would refuse to go along, and the 🇺🇸 is not yet ready to initiate harsher coercive measures, given 🇷🇸 role providing 🇺🇦 with ammunition
13/ and light infantry weapons. "To implement Article 7, Kosovo launches immediately negotiations within the EU-facilitated Dialogue on establishing specific arrangements and guarantees to ensure an appropriate level of self-management for the Serbian community in Kosovo,
14/ in compliance with relevant previous Dialogue agreements as determined by the EU Facilitator." They were already doing this. "The Parties agree to set up a Joint Monitoring Committee, chaired by the EU, within 30 days. The implementation of all provisions shall be ensured and
15/ supervised by the Joint Monitoring Committee." This might be something of substance. Or it might not. "To implement Article 9, the EU will organise a donor conference within 150 days to set up an investment and financial aid package for Kosovo and Serbia. No disbursement
16/ will happen before the EU determines that all provisions of the Agreement have been fully implemented." Still lots of carrots, no sticks, because there is no backing for it in Washington or Brussels at this stage. And sticks require an admission of failure.
17/ "Kosovo and Serbia agree that all Articles will be implemented independently of each other.
The order of the paragraphs of this Annex is without prejudice to the order of their implementation."

WTF? A free-for-all? This is where the nothing-burger is exposed for what it is.
18/ Vučić must now find a way to sell the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan to 🇷🇸's public, over 50% of whom oppose action on 🇽🇰. In order to win over public support, Vučić must:
1) Have the political will, which he doesn't;
2) Use media to shape public opinion.
19) The first sign that Vučić has decided to change direction on 🇽🇰 will be seen in 🇷🇸's media. When Vučić gives the order to take a pro-western stance, it will be immediately visible.

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More from @JamesLy16155383

Sep 24, 2023
🧵1/ The terrorist attack on Kosovo Police and the siege of the Banjska Monastery in North #Kosovo.
Overnight, a Kosovo Police patrol came under fire from automatic weapons, hand grenades, and anti-tank rockets at a roadblock in the village of Banjska.
#Serbia #Russia Image
2/ According to official sources, one #Kosovo Police officer was killed and at least two others were wounded. #Serbia
@MiroslavLajcak @JosepBorrellF @CounselorDOS
@JakeSullivan46 @SecBlinken
3/ According to a statement of the #Serbian #Orthodox Church’s Raško-Prizrenska Bishopric “a group of armed, masked people forced their way into the [Banjska] monastery with an armored vehicle, during which they broke the monastery’s locked gate."
eparhija-prizren.com/sr/saopstenja/…
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17, 2023
1/ 🧵 #Serbia's thin-skinned president Aleksandar #Vučić, who controls nearly the entire media spectrum, just filed a SLAPP against 2 journalists for a documentary series that aired three years ago in February 2020 on N1. n1info.rs/vesti/vucic-tu…
2/ Vučić claims that the defendants "caused him serious spiritual pain and suffering" and hurt his "highly ranked image and honor". He claims he felt "fear of a high intensity", and that the series was a media coup against the president. nova.rs/vesti/politika…
3/ The suit alleges that the journalists characterized Vučić as "arrogant", a "sick man", "uneducated", "rude", "manipulative", a "man who doesn't speak the truth", etc. Those seem like accurate descriptions that can be backed up with empirical evidence. What is he upset about?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17, 2023
1/ A 🧵on Ohrid threats: The upcoming Ohrid meeting between #Vučić, #Kurti, and Borrell about the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan for #Kosovo is Dead On Arrival. A recently leaked EU document contains threatened actions about what the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 could do if #Serbia and Kosovo don't sign on.
2/ It is highly probable that the meeting will kick the can down the road to late 2023. Yet, the hype leading up to this meeting and the leaked EU document indicate a high level of pressure on Belgrade and Pristina to deliver, due to 🇷🇺 illegitimate and unprovoked invasion of🇺🇦
3/ The document says that if 🇷🇸 and 🇽🇰 do not sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan, the 🇪🇺 (and 🇺🇸?) will: "Suspend the integration path and throw away associated processes and benefits. Isolation and internal turmoil will soon follow".
Read 10 tweets
Mar 16, 2023
🧵1/ The upcoming 18 March Ohrid meeting between #Serbia’s 🇷🇸 President Aleksandar #Vučić and #Kosovo 🇽🇰 Prime Minister Albin #Kurti is already a bust. Odds that anything of substance will be signed are the same as the odds that Donald #Trump will stop coloring his hair. Image
2/ This is part of a game of chicken between Vučić and Kurti. Vučić swerved first on 27 February in #Brussels, where it became apparent that Kurti was willing to keep his foot on the gas pedal longer. The faces at the meeting speak eloquently of winners and losers.
3/ Vučić had bet that Kurti wouldn’t sign on to the Franco-German plan. This gave Vučić the room to pretend to go along with #EU/#US policy goals, simply by taking one step further than Kurti, but without doing anything of significant substance.
Read 25 tweets
Feb 6, 2023
1/ 🧵on Albin #Kurti, Aleksandar #Vučić, the latest twists in the Franco-German 🇫🇷🇩🇪plan for #Kosovo 🇽🇰, the specter of upcoming elections in #Serbia, Lajcak gives Vučić a wedgie, and a fart explodes in Belgrade's elevator (figuratively speaking).
2/ Yesterday, EU envoy Miroslav #Lajcak visited Pristina, where he appears to have had a productive meeting with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The "cat-that-swallowed-the-canary" look on Kurti's face indicates he is finally catching on to how the game is played.
3/ Kurti said: "We do accept the EU proposal for normalization of relations between Kosova and Serbia, and consider it a good basis for further discussion and a solid platform for moving forward."
Read 17 tweets
Feb 2, 2023
1/ 🧵Every Circus has a clown. Today’s session of #Serbia’s 🇷🇸 Parliament opened the next act of President Aleksandar #Vučić’s #Kosovo 🇽🇰 Kabuki Theater. It gave new meaning to the saying: “not my monkeys, not my circus,” and included a convicted rapist and an alleged murder.
2/ The session featured Vučić leading a debate about the Franco-German plan for Kosovo. In a combative speech in which he hurled kafana insults, he offered the parliament no details of the still undisclosed plan and failed to divulge information about it.
3/ The ultra-nationalist opposition played their role in a seemingly scripted fashion. Boško Obradović's ultra-nationalist Dveri deputies unfurled a banner reading "No To Capitulation".
Read 14 tweets

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