Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
Mar 20, 2023 7 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/7

It's worth adding to these $sivb snippets from @matt_levine and @benthompson – particularly Stratechery's "The End of Silicon Valley (Bank)", which was more nuanced than it sounds:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

stratechery.com/2023/the-death…

🧵👇
/2

...RE The End of Silicon Valley 👇

🅰️ I-95 Belt:
One thing that sank Greater Boston's thriving minicomputer/hardware/tech ecosystem was lack of (local) reinvestment – winners cashed-out vs SV VCs/founders continually reinvest time and money #flywheel

vox.com/2014/12/9/1163… Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-7 minicomputer, intr
/3

...The End of Silicon Valley (cont'd)👇

🅱️ SVB Bank Run:
VCs ran-the-gamut fm posterboys to paperboys to cheerleaders to D-linemen – that the outsized impact of a few snowballed to the many isn't signal of SV's downfall as much as classic panic

$sivb
/4

…the confluence of 🅰️+🅱️ is that Silicon Valley's rebound will determine its future trajectory – seems obvious, but its fate is not yet written:

SV's rise outta this travashamockery can be virtuous or vicious cycle of collective action – a lot like the $sivb snowball itself
/5

...too many of y'all are treating Silicon Valley's fate as some deterministic thing – like you've travelled through the one-and-only wormhole to SV's one-and-only fate

...but this future is probabilistic – again, "the outsized impact of a few [can snowball] to the many"
/6

...Silicon Valley has gotten big, mature, corporate – far more competitive zero sum impulse than last cycle

...but there's still plenty of capital there; question is whether or not last cycle's winners will cash-out like the 95-belt or reinvest like their predecessors
🏁/7

...and there's no shortage of capital intensive opportunity that falls into the province of Silicon Valley venture rn – e.g.:



medium.com/adventures-in-…

medium.com/adventures-in-…

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More from @AnthPB

May 10, 2023
@NeelyTamminga @stevehouf 1/5

Both can be true:

🅰️ ending student loan payment moratorium and reversing Biden debt forgiveness are sequentially disruptive (not a shock or crisis)

🅱️ releveraging of deleveraged household balance sheets is not entirely undesirable atm
@NeelyTamminga @stevehouf /2

...short-term effects of student loan forbearance:

🙃 moratorium ending shld b "priced in" but multiple extensions have historically/recently had perverse effects (e.g. SUI 🧵 )

🫣 SCOTUS reversing forgiveness cld b more of a cohort shock (not crisis)
@NeelyTamminga @stevehouf /3

...longer-term effects of student loan forbearance:

😬 def stoked inflation via multiple channels (e.g. consumption/housing/etc) – esp since "most of the [subsequent] increase in debt is driven by mortgage payments" ()
Read 6 tweets
May 1, 2023
1/8

"artists can no longer appear real on their own" – a perverse notion of centralized platforms becoming gatekeepers for identity/authenticity verification...?

eh, the problem was that anyone thought appearance was reality to being with...

drorpoleg.com/artificial-mon… #AI #LLM ImageImageImage
/2

...that's the idea behind @benthompson's 'Zero Trust Authenticity vs castle-and-moat' analogies, e.g.:

Just because a song looks and sounds like Drake doesn't mean it came from Drake – its authenticity must (obviously?) still be verified 👇

medium.com/adventures-in-… #media Image
/3

...but that's not obvious to everyone:

to whatever extent there's a crisis in the authenticity and verification of (mis/dis)information, it's concentrated among non-internet natives – i.e. Millennials/Zoomers aren't the problem 👇

stratechery.com/2020/zero-trus… #boomers #content Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 23, 2022
/1

"The historical linkage between corporate tax rates and investment growth is non-existent [almost zero, but the correlation] between [interest] rates and investment actually has the wrong sign [they're positively correlated]"

#capex #macro #fiscalpolicy Image
/2

"when profits are growing, so does investment [which] also shows a stronger connection with growth expectations – when CEOs expect stronger growth they also are planning higher levels of capex growth"

Image
Read 4 tweets
May 31, 2022
/1

...pursuant to prior myths (), here's another misunderstanding debunked – most recently by the Fed itself (2021):

"the money multiplier...is anchored in an obsolete explanation of how the Fed operates and influences banks"

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/p… ImageImageImageImage
/2

...money multiplier obsoletion TLDR:

· (fractional) reserve rates were a thing until GFC 2008, and obsoletion redoubled during COVID 2020 when reserve requirements were suspended/lowered to zero

· since reserves are now abundant, POMOs and SOMAs can't influence FFR anymore
/3

...money multiplier myths (cont'd):

· in the Fed's modern "ample-reserves regime... IORB serves as a reservation rate, and affects market interest rates [via arb]...influences banks' decisionmaking about setting deposit and loan rates...lending and investment"

#ioer #iorr
Read 5 tweets
May 10, 2022
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein 0/7

What are the chances that capital markets distortions are not passive's fault, but rather misattributed/coincidental ('correlation not causation')...?

To wit, some hypothetical questions – the devil's advocacy null hypothesis you've asked for...

@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /1

Weren't there a lot of reasons for this empirical increase in valuation multiples, e.g.:

• macro (demographics/disinflation/negative real rates)

• technical (TINA/access)

• sector mix-shift (tech)

• ~idiosyncratic ()
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /2.i

Why isn't increasing equity market implied correlation/comovement (and hence kurtosis) more attributable to rising financialization than specific passive/active share – i.e. stock market is increasingly a macro proxy instead of a collection of idiosyncratic stocks...?
Read 21 tweets

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