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https://twitter.com/AltcoinSherpa/status/1637799040204111872

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Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Jun 19

Pros and Cons for the Meme Super Cycle

Lately I've been thinking a lot about the duration of the meme pump and how it will be going forward. To be clear, memes have always had incredible moves. Ask any long time crypto trader and he'll always have a $DOGE story before it pumped. DOGE was always guaranteed to do some insane 10x and then completely retrace the entire move; only to consolidate for another 6 months and do it all over. It was like clockwork.

In 2021 we saw more meme strength w. DOGE and SHIB; PEPE also had a colossal run in 2023 in the bear market. Before, we always had the same rotation of majors--> mid caps --> memes then it would all be over. In the past, Memes pumping usually meant that retail was here and that was the end of the cycle (for the time being).

That changed this cycle in 2024 IMO.

1 thing I personally didn't expect was memes being the leading category/sector for all of crypto. We no longer saw strong tech projects lead as frequently (there was a brief period where the alt layer 1 trade was still there w. $SEI $TIA and others). But memes greatly took the attention with $WIF, $BONK, $PEPE, and many others crushing.

Memes in isolation are always going to be present. You're always going to have 1 crazy meme doing big numbers at all times in the industry; that's probable. But I'm more talking about the entire memecoin sector GrEATLY outperforming everything else as a regular occurrence for long durations, similar to what we have seen in 2024.

At the time, VC thought pieces came out with the meme coin super cycle. There are a lot of pros and cons as to why this is going to continue for the rest of this cycle (and many future cycles). I'll go into a few of them and what I am thinking about when evaluating this sector.

PROS for memes being the future leader (for the most part)

-People are sick of insider coins. This means that retail is sick of all of the VC backed projects with shiny new tech and valuations 50x lower than the public valuation. We've seen all of these types of charts before; it's down only once VC gets their tokens. Memes generally offer higher float / more distribution from the inception, which allows for less insiders (more on this later).

-Shiny new tech actually doesn't really do much. It's the sad reality but crypto hasn't really seen as big of a need for these new ecosystems (yet). There aren't enough users to support the 59th clone of Uniswap/AAVE with a few different features. See Starknet, a ghost chain.

-Crypto investors are here for speculation, not the tech. They are mostly here to make $, not for the ideological reasons. What coins always pump the hardest? Memes. You'll always hear about early xxxx buyers who made millions of dollars because they were early.

-Easier to understand. Memes have a much lower barrier to entry for retail participants, very similar to 2021 NFTs in that regard. Why ask someone to understand modular blockchains or chain abstraction when you can simply buy a picture of a dog with a hat? There is no comparison.

-More accessible. This part can probably be debated but every meme is on a dex, where anyone can trade at. Doesn't matter where you are/etc, you can access a memecoin and buy it.

-Memes pump the hardest. I know I wrote this before but I want to reiterate it. If you're looking for truly life changing gains and you don't have a very large starting stack, buying BTC or even a mid cap like AVAX probably isnt going to make you very rich. On the other hand, if you are early to any of the big memes, you can make 7 figures + very easily with a low stack.

So, in summary, you have: Easier thing to understand (random picture), easier thing to trade (dex), higher upside with lower capital, less insiders (not as many VCs or any), and more. Sounds like an easy decision, right?

CONS for memes being the future leader (for the most part)

I've presented some decent reasons why memes will continue to be the future leading sector in crypto. Ofc there will be some outliers or other sectors that take the lead; we saw that with RWA for example recently. But memes being the leader may not be realistic for some of the following reasons:

-High scam potential. Memes are filled with scams and rugs; there are a very large % of them out there where they launch, attract some early buyers, and then rug. I've invested in dozens of these where I throw some $ in and they evaporate into thin air after a day. This is hard for the average user.

-Insiders? yes, even memes have insiders, many more than you think. These insiders generally aren't VCs (sometimes they are) but more early contributors/whales to top meme projects like SHIB and others. There is a cabal and these guys have the playbook to create some of these memes that go viral and these insiders have a large % of the supply. $BRETT had like 80%+ insiders or something. You might think 'well, I'm getting dumped on by normal VCs in regular coins, why does it matter?'. That's true, it might not matter. But at least VCs have a much more open playbook/vesting schedule that is (generally) more public. Too many shadow games here.

-Extremely predatory. You know how I said that you'll hear about the guy who bought PEPE at 400k marketcap and made 10s of millions of dollars? What you don't hear about are the 10,000 other holders who ended up losing a lot of $ along the way. Most meme projects are value extractive, meaning that they are taking $ out of the system. Dumb money (aka 99% of retail) is getting fleeced out there and all of that money generally goes from the hands of the poor to the rich insiders. These insiders could be simply early deployers OR scammers. Either way, retail is losing their money.

-FAST losses. Ask anyone who held some shitcoin like $DOT down to the ground. it was a slow eternal bleed and, while extremely painful, that person still believes he might have a chance to recoup his $. The average meme project is much faster in terms of capitulation and many will lose their money instantly. While both situations lead to $0 (DOT or the random meme), at least the DOT holder may have some chance to sell later or the project does a pivot (you can see this with a lot of 2021 coins now). What I'm trying to say is: At least w. the old token, there is *some* hope. With the rugged meme, there isn't much.

-Pumpfun and other casino alternatives: Stuff like pump fun is probably bad for the entire ecosystem as a whole; the reason is that fish lose their $$ MUCH quicker than they would otherwise. dozens of scams were launching daily and people lost their $ at a blazing rate. The flow from poor person to rich was amplified greatly with these types of predatory games. I think that these projects are probably net negative for most ecosystems as a whole (but still serve great PMF in crypto since we're all degens).

-people 'tired' of memes: I've seen this statement and there is some sort of potential flip for investors to look more towards 'real value' (and this is an idea I've been thinking about lately). Maybe memes are overhyped and will just be a regular sector after all; where they pump similarly to alt Layer 1, game fi, ETH beta, RWA, and others (vs. the perpetual memecoin supercycle).

in summary: Memes might not be in the supercycle because people are losing $ too quickly, memes are filled w. insiders, and regular investors are tired/ready for regular coins.

Read 4 tweets

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Apr 30

Today's $BTC post will be on support WEAKENING every time it is touched. I like to use the analogy of a dropped ball. The first time you drop it, it has the best bounce off the ground. Then weaker and weaker bounces after. The classic example of this is #Bitcoin at the unbreakable 6k level.

One thing that always stuck with me is @CryptoCred saying 'first test, best test'.

So you can see the first initial reaction being the strongest bounce. Why is that? I don't know exactly but my guess is that you see lots of resting orders + late shorters getting screwed.

So the first reaction on a bounce is always the strongest. Note: I'm talking about big liquidation events typically, where you see long wicks and huge volume/volatility. Not a slow grind down.

Read 12 tweets

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Jan 3

How to play these big $BTC dumps in a bull market:

I'm going to give you some things to think about when trading/reacting to these #Bitcoin events. Probably will just be a long list of rambling thoughts.

-If you're not around, on your computer during these events, probably skip it. Don't trade; the first few minutes are SO important to catching any sort of dip or shorting. This is VERY important to understand. Late longing/shorting 15 minutes means you've missed most of the move

-These events happen even in bull markets. This is a chart from 2021; you saw plenty of nasty candles that were even bigger than todays

-This is natural and the way of things. monkeys get over levered and we see a market cleansing.

Read 12 tweets

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Dec 7, 2023

It's really important to understand that Altcoins DONT always move up in USDT value when #Bitcoin is mooning/going strong.

Take a look at $BTC during the start of its strong run at the end of 2020.

$ETH #Altcoins

Short thread

After spending most of 2020 in hibernation/chop/consolidation zone (after the March 2020 black swan event), BTC started to fucking moon. It went from 10k to 40k in the span of just a few months.

During 2020, alts had an extremely strong run. They got destroyed in 2018 and 2019 and btc.d was super high.

Then in the spring of 2020, altcoins started to have some life again for the first time in 2 years.

Read 15 tweets

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Dec 1, 2023

1 of the coins I want to add for a long swing trade this cycle is an alt layer 1

We've seen some huge moves for some of them recently: $SEI $NEON $TIA Monad and others.

Why are these types of coins really good bets for the next cycle? Short ideas below

Alt layer 1s have always been around during different altseasons.

2017 we had $EOS $NEO $TRX and others

2021 we had $SOL $LUNA $AVAX

2024 we're going to have all of the above coins and several others. Probably some sort of ZK narrative coming up as well.

There are loads more that launched in the bear market too that might already be somewhat forgotten: ARB, SUI, APT, OP, and others.

Why are these types of coins decent bets for the next run?

Read 15 tweets

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

Nov 27, 2023

Having different portfolios for different strategies is very key as a crypto investor.

You can do it how you want but how I do it:

1) HODL stack ( $BTC and $ETH)
2) Investment stack (usually lower cap shitcoins)
3) Swing trade stack
4) Short term / scalp stack

1) HODL stack: usually $BTC $ETH and sometimes 1-2 other alts. I don't usually touch these much, just let it sit until the bull run.

Why? Because I know I'm going to fuck it up and trade and lose this $ in choppy environments. It's better to always have a safety net

I think it's important to have a HODL stack for a few reasons.
-you'll prob fuck it up trading
-you'll probably sell too early
-you'll always be exposed to crypto, which helps when price is pumping.

Usually put this in a cold storage wallet and don't touch it overall.

Read 22 tweets

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