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Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 25

@FinMinIndia

A #BRILLIANT move by the @FinMinIndia hit 4 birds with one stone by introducing 3 changes in the Finance Bill. The 3 birds..
1) Higher Tax Collections
2) Capital Controls
3) Bank Deposits
4) Lower cost of Govt funding.
But will HURT GROWTH. Long #THREAD

What are the changes
1) End of LTCG on #debt, Gold ETFs, Overseas or Any mutual fund that invests in less than 35% india equity bought after 1 Apr-23
2) STT Raised by 25%
3) Tax Collected at Source (TCS) raised to 20% (5% earlier) & threshold reduced to Zero (Rs7 lac earlier)

TRIGGER POINT: The Banking system is facing a shortage of liquidity => PRIMARY motive for the Changes in the Finance Bill in my opinion.

WHAT CAUSED THE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH? Weak Deposit growth vs credit growth.... also reflected in rising Credit/Deposit ratio

Read 28 tweets

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 24

#StockMarket #Lessons #TINA #TARA

#TINA: There Is NO ALTERNATIVE
#TARA: There Are REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES

When the facts changed, Market DUMPED #TINA and moved on to #TARA

After being in an ABUSIVE Relationship, when will a INDIAN #VOTER Learn 2 DUMP #TINA in favor of #TARA

#TINA was EQUITIES in Post Covid Era till 2022 Jan-22

#TARA is CASH/GOLD came to the fore in Jan-22

==================

#TINA in Indian #Politics is HeWhoShouldNotBeNamed

#TARA could be anyone else …. Even a Regular HUMAN is better

@MakeItAQuote

@MakeItAQuote

Read 4 tweets

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 23

#BustingMyths #ForexReserves #Modinomics #MUSTREAD

Judging a Country based on its #ForexReserves is like Judging a Persons Networth based on his #SavingAccount balance & not his #LoanAccount balance.

Judge #Modinomics on #NIIP (-ve $390bn)
And Not on FX Reserves (+ve $506bn)

@FinMinIndia

So what is #NIIP or Net International Investment Position. Let me quote @FinMinIndia Economic Survey

NIIP is the difference b/w an Economy’s External financial Assets & Liabilities.

If Economy = Person, NIIP is Assets (Property, Deposits, Investments) less Liabilities (Loans)

@FinMinIndia

As per FY23 Economic Survey released by @FinMinIndia before budget, India's overseas financial ASSETS at US$ 847.5bn but India's International LIABILITIES was higher at US$ 1,237.1Bn

Assets ($847.5) LESS Liabilities ($1237.1Bn) = NEGATIVE $389.6Bn

STOP LOOKING AT FX RESERVES

Read 7 tweets

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 23

#Accenture just announced Results... Quick Points

Cuts top end of growth guidance from 11% to 10%
Earlier it was 8-11% YY cc revenue growth, now it is 8-10%.
Guidance for Q3 is $16.1-$16.7bn revenues, +3-7% y-y in cc.

Q2 revenues at $15.8bn. In cc terms it is 9% YY growth ( 6-10% in guidance) & in $ terms it is 5% y-y growth.
Ebit margin for Q2 was 12.3% down 140bps YY

Business optimisation cost of $244mn or around 150bps of revenues booked in Q2
=> Adjusted margin at 13.8% , up 10 bps y-y

Cuts margin guidance sharply from 15.3-15.5% for fy23 earlier to 14.1-14.3% now. * This includes $800mn business optimisation costs. Excluding this the band is unchanged at 15.3-15.5%.

Read 7 tweets

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 22

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1638519418660732928

Be vary about getting caught into a value trap with #HAL #OFS ..... just some points to keep in mind

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1638519418660732928

POSITIVE: HAL market cap is sufficient to get itself included in the MSCI Index. Might happen in May-2023. so the govt has timed this well.

NEGATIVE: Domestic institutions like #LIC & #HDFC who bought the stock when it was Rs1000 levels appear to be selling in each rally even while Retail & FIIs appear have to increased their stake. DONT READ much into the FII stake since much of it could be Index Funds, ETFs & HFs

Read 6 tweets

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳

@TheFactFindr

Mar 15

#SomeThoughts - what’s driving Crude Oil Down ?

The massive rise in Bond Volatility which can be tracked by the MOVE index is driving VAR (Value at Risk) related Asset Sales which is driving the sell down across various Asset classes.

Gold is quite a illiquid asset and hence a bit of buying here (most obvious asset that benefits), can send it up even in such an environment. GOLD is a great asset to reduce the overall Volatility in your portfolio.

Read 6 tweets

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