Thread by @TirusewAsefa

The Grand #Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (#GERD).

A thread.

If you happen to look at the news in the last couple of weeks about it, you will find a lot.👇

For the casual reader, what these news articles Don't tell you WHY exactly #Egypt and #Ethiopia are locked in these bitter disagreements over the #Nile water use via the #GERD.
1/23

Quick background:

The #Nile river is shared by 11 countries. Of its total annual flow contribution, #Ethiopian rivers including #Abbay (Blue Nile) that #GERD is being built accounts 85% or ~77 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM). The rest of the Nile countries accounts ~15%.
2/23

#Egypt & #Sudan claim that based on THEIR 1959 colonial era agreement they signed with each other they are entitled to “full utilization" of the #Nile water [ref1] even if 100% of the water is generated by countries beyond their borders including the lion share by #Ethiopia.
3/23

After so many failed Joint Multi-Purpose Projects that was supposed to bring a win-win solutions, #Ethiopia went ahead and started #GERD construction in 2011.

For over a decade #Egypt, #Ethiopia and #Sudan have been negotiating with no breakthrough at all yet [ref2].
4/23

What is the sticky issue?

#Egypt wants through the so called “binding agreement” on #GERD filling and operation to impose a water sharing instrument that #Ethiopia refuses to accept.

There no international precedent for such an agreement as proposed by #Egypt.
5/23

How is #Egypt pushing for this nonstarter position?

#Egypt proposes a water release scenario it wants to have it permanently signed off that amounts to:

#Ethiopia won’t have any consumptive water use from the Blue Nile for ever. No irrigation. No drinking water. Nada.
6/23

For that, #Egypt defines “drought” as any flow below average (same as media for annual flow). The plot 👇was used during their negotiation with #Ethiopia.

I have never seen in a hydrologic literature drought defines as a central tendency (median) value. It is an extreme.
7/23

The implication of the figure above is that every other year #Egypt is in drought. One then asks: Was Egypt in drought last year? No. The year before? No. Prior to that? No. You would have to go back several decades before the construction of HAD to get a drought in #Egypt.
8/23

This kind of definition of drought is purely for the interest of enforcing #Ethiopia to release average flow in perpetuity.

Which translate to ZERO consumptive water use for #Ethiopia from the Nile water.
9/23

In short, #Egypt is using #GERD as a water sharing instrument to enforce a colonial era water allocation in the entire Nile basin.

Ethiopia finds it ZERO percent allocation that is presented in #Egypt’s proposal a nonstarter.
10/23

How is the media and pseudo-science playing into this?

A whole lot.

Some say, “#Egypt is going to die of thirst” and others says “the entire #Sudan is going to be wiped out because the potential #GERD collapse”
11/23

While an AGU article was removed [ref3] that said “Will Ethiopia’s disputed dam collapse?”, the current #Egyptian Water minister followed up with his prediction “there is a 50 percent chance the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will collapse” [ref4].

All unfounded.
12/23

#Egypt's media shows different pictures for different “realities” to different audiences. The tale of two pictures at the same time!
13/23

For Tourism For #GERD Negotiation

Fast forward to the last few years….

14/23

Every year, right about this time as accustomed as “spring forward” practiced by many countries, #GERD hydropolitics starts to warm up and stays as such until fall. Just like the clock change, sometime in October it “falls back” and stay dormant until the following spring.
15/23

In 2020, when Ethiopia was about to complete the first filling which is a mere <10% of Blue Nile flow and <flow standard deviation.

➡️Al Jazeera's @ajlab in-house modeling "experts" figured out that a five year filling schedule by #Ethiopia will wipe out 50% #Egypt’s farm.
16/23

.@AJENews & @hiba_morgan reported that the first filling of #GERD is to blame for devastating #Sudan flood in 2020.

“Scientists say having #GERD build and store water resulted in more condensation and heavy cloud, which created more rainfall” resulting flood in #Sudan.
17/23

“Filling #GERD in three yrs will wipe out 72% #Egyptian farmland.” A study [ref5] that was picked up by many media and created even more tension.

It was challenged by us [ref6] and others [ref7]. Of course, we are in the FOURTH year of #GERD filling.
18/23

Bottom line is the hard line taken by #Egypt and refusing to recognize other riparian countries' right to use the #Nile water as well is the cause deadlock in the decade old negotiation [ref5].

19/23

Just so the reader understands how hardliner is #Egypt’s position, I will leave you with a question few years back that was posed for the current water resources and irrigation minister of #Egypt regarding #Ethiopia's right to use the Nile water [ref8].
20/23

Question to Current #Egypt Minister: what do you think is the share of #Ethiopia from the Blue Nile flow?

Answer: #Ethiopia has a lot of rain and I don't think they should get any water from the #Blue Nile. ZERO. [ref8]

21/23

That is a difficult position to agree on when one country from the get-go says you are not entitled to ANY water use despite you generating 86% of total flow.

So, we go and on in this endless “negotiation” .. and on [ref9]
22/23

References:
[Ref1]: “Agreement for the full utilization of the Nile Water. Signed at Cairo on 8, November 1959 treaties.un.org/doc/Publicatio…
[Ref2]: IHE Delft:
[ref 3]: Will Ethiopia’s disputed dam collapse? [removed] eos.org/articles/will-…

[ref4] Hani Swelam: Chance of #GERD collapse is 50%. egypttoday.com/Article/1/1008…
[ref5] iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
[ref6] iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
[ref7] iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

[ref8]: iwp.edu/events/webinar…
[ref9]: weaspire.info/the-elephant-i…
23/23