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ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 29

NEW: #Wagner Group forces have likely taken the AZOM industrial complex in northern #Bakhmut and continue to make gains within the city.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar032823

#Russian milbloggers widely claimed on Mar. 28 that #Wagner fighters have captured the AZOM complex and are working to clear the area of remaining #Ukrainian forces.

These claims are relatively consistent with available visual evidence of Russian presence in the AZOM complex. 2/

#Wagner is likely working to consolidate gains in northern and central #Bakhmut to push towards the city center and expand its zone of control into western Bakhmut. 3/

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 28

Southern #Ukraine update:

#Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

isw.pub/UkrWar032723

#Russian sources claimed on Mar. 27 that the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in the #Zaporizhia direction... [B]ut a Russian milblogger claimed on Mar. 21 that unspecified elements of the 136th are instead operating in the #Avdiivka direction. 2/

The apparent simultaneous commitment of elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to two disparate areas of the frontline is notably not a doctrinally sound pattern of deployment. 3/

Read 5 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 27

March 26 Assessment Highlight:

The outcomes of wars often are, in fact, determined on the battlefield with negotiations that merely ratify military realities. Putin likely has one such example vividly in his mind—World War II in Europe. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032623

WWII ended only when Allied forces had completely defeated the German military and Soviet troops stood in the wreckage of Berlin. Japan surrendered a few months later after the US had demonstrated what appeared to be the ability to destroy the country completely. 2/

Going further back in history the peaces that ended the three Wars of German Unification, the American Civil War, and the Napoleonic Wars also merely ratified realities created by decisive military victories. Even the most recently ended war adhered to this pattern. 3/

Read 6 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 27

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1640139217538826243

The continuing of #Russian offensive operations around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka, as well as along the #Luhansk and western #Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that #Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war.

isw.pub/UkrWar032623

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1640139217538826243

It is not a given, nevertheless, that #Putin will continue fighting regardless of cost until the day he dies.

Putin is nevertheless putting no terms for negotiation on the table now other than #Russia’s total success. 2/

The choices before #Ukraine and its Western backers at this time are thus relatively straightforward:

(1) Ukraine can unilaterally cease fighting even as #Russian attacks by ground and air continue, which would lead to disastrous defeat. 3/

Read 5 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 26

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin accused Russian authorities on March 25 of rewriting the history of the war in #Ukraine to cut out Wagner.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523

#Prigozhin claimed that unspecified #Russian authorities forced state-controlled media outlet RT—which has consistently promoted #Wagner operations in #Ukraine—to cut the first half of a film on the role of Russian convicts in the war because it centered on the Wagner Group. 2/

#Prigozhin claimed that #Russian authorities want to convince the populace that “pomaded generals” in fancy offices really won the war. 3/

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Mar 26

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1639843615034732544

#Ukrainian and Western officials offered various views of the state of the #Russian offensive in #Bakhmut on March 25, but all are consistent with the assessment that the Russian effort around Bakhmut is likely culminating.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1639843615034732544

#Russian forces may continue to attack #Bakhmut frequently and aggressively even if the offensive has culminated with little to no success, as ISW has previously assessed, as culmination does not mean the absence of fighting. 2/

#Russian attacks in and around #Bakhmut may resume at high levels without generating significant new gains if conventional Russian forces do, in fact, enter the fray. 3/

Read 4 tweets

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