Thread by @tepuuma

Sunday morning coffee after the necessary start of the day with animals is usually the time where I scroll through the weekly/daily charts and last weeks setups assessment.

#uranium

Looking through the whole #uranium sector, its obvious that asymmetric reward vs risk is EMERGING, but not yet wide spread. Any kind of liquidity flush from here will cause a future supply restriction as large entities will use that liquidity to load up the positions.

We can only mark a bottom in hindsight. It can already be in, -10% from here or -50% from here.

My tactic is to probe it with short term long trades, diversify in non-correlating equities and if I see a possible trigger event, hedge.

Broad market is still in shape to make a double top or a blow off top, no doubt about it, but will it, we don't have to guess it. Such a tailwind would definitely help #uranium aswell.

What Im somewhat skeptical is the longevity of that move...

So where would I personally turn bullish, no matter the context (exl. nuclear accident).

My dynamic bottom targets for $URNM are currently hovering around that Aug 2021 low, 25ish. Below that has high prob to be the lowest decile.

Looking at $URA vs #SPX500 there could be some underperformance ahead to make an arc confirmation.

SPX can easily 0.95x and ratio suggest 0.9x for URA -> arc would be confirmed with -15% (URA) move from here.

That in the other hand would correspond with Aug 2021 lows of URA.

For 99.9% of retail lower prices do not have any value, they are fully invested and the low %pf amounts of DCA deposits wont make a big difference. Whales are eager for sales and if the market gives them the tools, only a little push is needed for lower prices.