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NEW: #Russia accused #Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the #Kremlin on May 3.
Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience & set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.🧵1/7
Latest: isw.pub/UkrWar050323
Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience & set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.🧵1/7
Latest: isw.pub/UkrWar050323
2/ Several indicators suggest that the #KremlinStrike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. isw.pub/UkrWar050323
3/ RU authorities have recently taken steps to increase RU domestic air defense capabilities, including within #Moscow itself. Geolocated imagery from Jan. shows that RU authorities have been placing air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.
4/ It is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the #Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera.
5/ The #Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident further suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment.
6/ The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience.
7/ Some Russian nationalist milbloggers seized on the #Kremlin drone strike to call for Russian escalation in the war despite the fact that Russia currently lacks the military capability to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar050323
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