Thread by @johnkonrad

Receiving much pushback for calling out #GenMilley's @thejointstaff comment on Ukraine as 'landlocked'.

Critics argue that 🇷🇺 control over the #BlackSea renders 🇺🇦 effectively landlocked.

However, even a broad interpretation of 'landlocked' is flawed. Here's a 🧵why:

https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1653492446351728640

Claiming UKR is landlocked militarily requires overlooking Crimea's significance to Putin. It's key in controlling access to the crucial Caspian Sea, Don-Volga Canal, and a major portion of Russia's extensive inland waterway system. #Ukraine #MilitaryPerspective

In 2021, Putin emphasized the waterway's importance, pledging billions for development to connect the Black Sea and the Baltic.

gcaptain.com/russia-short-s…

As @PeterZeihan emphasizes in his books on #geopolitics inland rivers play a critical role in national security and prosperity, as they provide efficient transport, economic opportunities, and geopolitical leverage for nations. #PeterZeihan #InlandRivers #EconomicOpportunities

According to Zeihan, nations with access to navigable rivers enjoy a strategic edge in trade, military operations, and resource distribution, ultimately shaping the global landscape and driving national prosperity.

Controlling #River trade is important!
#waterways #workboats

The illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 enabled Russia to construct the Kerch Strait Bridge, granting control over traffic into the Sea of Azov and its vital inland waterways network.

#Crimea #KerchStraitBridge
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/rus…

Russia utilized the bridge to restrict ship sizes entering Mariupol Port, aiming to reduce its significance.

Ukraine responded with the revealing film "Crimea Bridge: Made With Love!" showcasing the bridge's true intent. #MariupolPort #CrimeaBridge

Tensions escalated, as evidenced by the Nov 25, 2018 incident when Russia seized Ukrainian ships, spotlighting growing concerns over river traffic in the years leading up to war
#MaritimeConflict rferl.org/a/explainer-ke…

Why did Russia want to control shipping near Mariupol? Because of its location and strategic importance. Located near the Don River mouth, Mariupol exercises certain legal authority over nearby vessel traffic, something Russia finds disconcerting.

In case of hostilities, Ukraine could blockade Russia's inland waterway network by targeting vessel traffic entering or exiting the system. And that's precisely what happened when war broke out.

On Feb 24, Russia suspended commercial traffic in the Sea of Azov, only reopening after Mariupol's capture. lieber.westpoint.edu/war-at-sea-nav… #SeaOfAzov

It caused an enormous backlog of traffic heading to Russian farms and facilities in the Caspian and inland rivers. Here is a screengrab of AIS traffic on 17 Feb 2022 via ARX

Essentially #Mariupol is to Russia what New Orleans is to the United States: the key gateway to the nation's interior.

Except, of course, the US owns New Orleans and Russia does not own Mariupol.
#Mississippi #neworleans

So, by saying "Ukraine is Land-Locked" Milley is discounting one of the most important - and possibly THE most important - reasons for the Russian invasion.

Strike 1 General Milley

So assuming we forget the rising tensions in the Sea of Azov and the strategic importance of Mariupol there is another problem with Milley's comment.

To say the military actions were essentially landlocked you have to ignore many factors.

You have to ignore the diversion of time and effort put into securing Ukraine's largest port city - Odesa - from Russian attack. This fortification was successful but resource-intensive npr.org/2022/03/22/108…

To gain a balanced perspective, consider factors emphasized by US Naval Academy scholar @WWATMD in his insightful @WarOnTheRocks essay. He argues that although primarily a land war, it's also a naval war:

warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-ru… #NavalWarfare #riverine

To claim the war is "landlocked" you have to ignore:
Retaking Snake Island
Sinking The Moskva
Attack on the Crimea Strait Bridge
Attack on the Nord-Stream Pipeline
The Sea-drone attack on the Russian fleet
The drone attack on Crimean oil tanker terminals

Attacks on commercial shipping.
American Drones getting harassed over the Black Sea
Mine Warfare.
The Montreux Convention

And the vital importance of the UN Grain Deal
#BlackSea #FoodSecurity
gcaptain.com/ukraine-calls-…

You must ignore all this to even suggest this is a "landlocked war"

Strike 2 General Milley

I understand critics may claim I took his comment out of context, arguing he referred only to the war's staging and onset so here's the complete statement: "The fundamentals are different, in the sense that—just the terrain and the weather...

"It’s obvious. You’ve got a landlocked country of Ukraine, with a land border with Russia. And Russia was able to mobilize and place into assembly areas and attack positions for an invasion, you know, 140,000, 150,000 troops..

just in the lead echelons, with another a hundred thousand behind them, on multiple axes of advance across a land border. So then they have ground lines of communication."

That is the full quote by #genMilley foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how-t…

That's what he said but there is still one major problem.

Landlocked countries are at or near the source of the river system, the Upper Basin, and Headwaters. /cont

Navigating large rivers presents armies with significant challenges, including logistical hurdles, unpredictable currents, and potential bottlenecks. These factors severly impact troop movement, supply lines, and military strategy. #RiverineChallenges

“Throughout history wars have been lost because of armies not crossing rivers.” General George S. Patton

Ukraine's abundance of large rivers presents both challenges and strategic opportunities. Difficult to cross, they've played a crucial role in impeding Russia's initial advances, with bridges sacrificed around the nation and flooded to protect Kyiv.

mwi.usma.edu/waterworld-how…

Ukraine's vast river systems also serve as vital transport routes and natural barriers, influencing the nation's geopolitical landscape, and the shape of the war itself. #Ukraine #Rivers

That's Strike 3 General Milley

Ok, Ok... but John you're being a little over dramatic.

It's just something that slipped out in an interview.

It's a simple mistake... give the guy a break.

Right?

Yes and No

Yes because it was a simple mistake but no for two reasons:

1) the Pentagon has a vast media arm and it would be simple for Genral Milley to correct the record

2) Minor yet indicative of today's leaders' mindset, after 2 decades of GWOT, our nation's seablindness is concerning. Few, besides easily-dismissed #navalists, have sought a correction.

Words matter.
Shipping matters.
The Navy matters.
Rivers and waterways matter.
Matter deeply

And for the world's largest island nation - The United States - fighting sea-blindness matters.

It's worrisome that the Pentagon, led by a Joint Chiefs Chairman and a Secretary of Defense both from the Army, may have overlooked the true importance of the blue parts on the map.

IMHO we can not let them - or global policy leaders - forget the critical role waterways play.