Thread by @CandaceRondeaux

The last 24hrs have been dizzying for #WagnerGroup followers & #Russia watchers like Wagner chief #Yevgeny Prigozhin has released 4 videos that will have historical import for how outcomes of the #RussiaUkraine war.🧵

2/Around 9:50pm Kyiv time, on May 4, Prigozhin dropped a video of himself standing in a field full of bloody corpses. In it, he delivered an expletive laden soliloquy, cursing Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Army Staff Valery Gerasimov.

3/This wasn’t the first time Prigozhin publicly called out the Russian military’s failure to supply #WagnerGroup fighters with sufficient ammunition.But Prigozhin's hysterical rant amid a ghoulish scene of battlefield casualties suggests he might not just be crying wolf.

4/About 10hrs later, Prigozhin released a second video where he complained once again of insufficient supplies, indicating that on May 1 Russian army command cut off resupply altogether. He said #WagnerGroup forces would therefore pull out of Bakhmut on May 10.

5/Why May 10 and not sooner? Because, Prigozhin explained, he did not want to be the one to deal a blow to the collective #Russian psyche of executing a military defeat on the symbolically charged Victory Day which falls on May 9.

6/The Victory Day timing may offer the 1st clue that there’s more than meets the eye in #Bakhmut.We know that #Putin highly prizes the symbolism of patriotic holidays & WWII nostalgia.The 2022 invasion of #Ukraine, for instance, started 1 day after Defense of the Fatherland Day.

7/If we rewind a bit to Prigozhin’s lengthy War Gonzo interview on 4/28, we find more clues. A significant one is Prigozhin’s call for Russia’s deputy defense minister Col.Gen.Mikhail Mzintsev aka “The Butcher of Mariupol” to resign & join the #WagnerGroup

8/A few hours ago, Prigozhin released a 3rd video rant, claiming that now that Mzintsev was just sitting next to him as they plotted the next course of action for the #BakhmutRetreat.

9/It seems Mzintsev has now indeed joined #WagnerGroup at the #Ukraine front. If true, it would appear that the low-boiling factionalism that began bubbling over the winter inside the Kremling may now be a full-blown geyser.Keep an eye on Mzintsev reuters.com/world/europe/r…

10/In a 4/28 video, Prigozhin called for the firing of Russia Minister of Trade and Industry Denis Manturov.This is significant as there have long been rumblings about the Kremlin’s dissatisfaction w/ Manturov’s inability to kick the military-industrial complex into higher gear.

11/Manturov also wears several hats–all of them are important for #WagnerGroup & regular #Russian forces. In 2012, Manturov became Chair of the Supervisory Committee for Rostec, Russia’s top ranked state arms manufacturer.

12/A Putin favorite, Manturov became kingmaker over $billions$ worth of defense contracts doled out to Prigozhin’s companies.

13/According to this archived news article Manturov is the richest civil servant in the country.His declared assets in 2021 were valued at about $9 billion.It is entirely possible that #Prigozhin & the #WagnerGroup helped make him rich.web.archive.org/web/2022051401…

14/Kremlin politics are always murky. But Prigozhin’s political motives often align with Putin’s by default. It is possible that when Prigozhin complains loudly about military failures that he is acting as a crude mouthpiece for things Putin politically cannot say aloud.

15/The fact that the announced #Bakhmut #WagnerGroup pullout is occurring as #Ukraine launches its widely anticipated spring counteroffensive is also important. It’s possible that Prigozhin genuinely sees defeat written on the wall and wants to get out before the onslaught.

16/We won’t know whether the #Bakhmut retreat is a military feint meant to misdirect Ukrainian attention and divert resources elsewhere or something else for a few more days. But one thing to keep an eye out for is unusual signs of equipment & planes moving eastward toward Russia

17/Either way, this is a huge inflection point in the war and will have long term consequences for how the history of #Russia's war on #Ukraine is ultimately told. Stay tuned to @NewFrontlines for more updates soon.