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Andreas Umland Profile picture
@UmlandAndreas
May 6 • 6 tweets • 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
SHORT THREAD

Smart essay by @MykolaKapitone1 in @IPGJournal. I disagree though with his dire prediction... /1

@SCEEUS_UI @ResearchUI

@Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @RusVerstehen @UA_Institute_DE @rightsinrussia @DUF_Forum
ipg-journal.io/ru/rubriki/vne…
While it is prudent to prepare for a long war, I expect it to be short or at least not long - for the reasons Łukasz Adamski outlined in a Facebook comment to @MykolaKapitone1's posting of the Ukrainian version.../2

@MieroszewskiPL @LukaszAdamskiPL
The likelihood of internal instability in Russia rises with every additional day of war. Ukraine is under domestic stress too, but will probably muddle through, for now. War changes everything, all the time. In Russia, it is for the worse rather than better.../3

@WarInstitute
Accumulation of stress will lead to increasing burn out, and eventually some bifurcation point after which an end to the war is more likely than its continuation. /END

@hwag_ucmc @WarOnTheRocks @Fog_0f_War @Global_Wars @UkraineBreakNew @war_ukr @front_ukrainian @Ukroblogger
PS von @LukaszAdamskiPL:
@LukaszAdamskiPL @threadreaderapp #unroll

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Apr 11
This horrible scene is, like the previous publication of the shooting of a Ukrainian soldier, not a spontaneous action. Rather, it is a purposeful, KGB-style "reflexive control" operation designed to drive Moscow's enemy to behave in a way that benefits Moscow. /1
The aim of staging and circulating such horrible scenes seems to be to radicalize Ukrainian soldiers or to make their radicalizaiton appear plausible. A radicalization of Ukraine's society and army is beneficial to Moscow, as this will feed back on defeatist Russian soldiers./2
The more radicalized the Ukrainian army is or can be portrayed by the Kremlin, the better for Moscow. The more implicated the Russian army is in mass crimes and horrible actions like this one, the better for Moscow./3
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 21
Kurzkommentar zur heutigen Rede von #WladimirPutin:

Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt dieser #PutinRede war der angeblich defensive und reaktive Charakter von Russlands offensivem und völkermörderischem Krieg.... /1

@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia
@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia @Konflikt_Sicher @Osteuropakanal @DGO_Berlin @swud_org @pw_portal @GSPSipo Putins Darstellung der #Großinvasion der Ukraine im Februar 2022 als provoziert durch westliche Pläne und Aktivitäten zum Angriff auf #Russland richtete sich sowohl an das heimische als auch an das ausländische Publikum... /2

CC: @IGFrieden @FIfF_de @dsfrieden @MucFriedenskonf
@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia @Konflikt_Sicher @Osteuropakanal @DGO_Berlin @swud_org @pw_portal @GSPSipo @IGFrieden @FIfF_de @dsfrieden @MucFriedenskonf Die interne Unterstützung für die russische so genannte "#Spezialoperation" und internationale Geduld mit ihr nehmen ab. Gleichzeitig kann Moskau weder beeindruckende militärische Siege noch plausible Szenarien für eine Beendigung des Krieges... /3

CC: @karenina_pdo @deruforum
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 18
The #RussianUkrainianWar should serve as an occasion to delete the "#Eurasia" label from #areastudies. Unless it geologically denotes the entire Euro-Asiatic continent, "Eurasia" has #protofascist connotations. #Eurasianism was the Russian version of the #ConservativeRevolution.
PS: "#CentralEurasianStudies" seems to be ok if it denotes #CentralAsia, which can be seen to be in the center of both Asia and Eurasia, understood as continents rather than cultural realms.
PPS: See, on the similarities between #classicalEurasianism and the #ConservativeRevolution, the relevant papers by, above all, #LeonidLuks, but also by #MarleneLaruelle, #MartinBeisswenger, #StefanWiederkehr, #MarkBassin and other experts on Russian political thought.
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 10
Hier hat jemand dieses Dokument - die UnterzeichnerInnen des Appells von @SWagenknecht und @_AliceSchwarzer - als "Liste der Niedertracht" bezeichnet.

THREAD:

So weit würde ich nicht gehen... /1
@SWagenknecht @_AliceSchwarzer Aber stolz kann Deutschland auf die weit ins politische Zentrum reichende Unterstützung solcher Briefe nicht sein. Man hätte meinen sollen, dass gerade die deutschen Intellektuellen mehr aus dem 20. - sozusagen "unserem" - Jahrhundert gelernt haben.... /2
@SWagenknecht @_AliceSchwarzer In den Ländern, in denen wir seinerzeit am blutigsten gewütet haben, wird man derartige deutsche Appelle mit besonderer Verbitterung wahrnehmen..../3
Read 6 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 3
EUROPE'S MAGICAL STRATEGIC THINKING AND MAIN BATTLE TANKS -- thread:

There was and is a paradox, if not absurdity, in the long slowness and continuing partiality of #WesternEurope's decision to provide #Ukraine with #mainbattletanks (#MBTs). /1
@Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @EPC_CPE_News @UA_22_Ukraine @H__Ukraine @StimmeUkraine @DUF_Forum @CPD_UA @worldoftanks @AugenGeradeaus These vehicles - more so than most other conventional military technology - were once built and commissioned for a potential fight against Moscow's #imperialism in #Europe - rather than for usage against other potential enemies or for peace-keeping missions around the world. /2
Then, the moment came for these machines to be used for what they had been initially constructed and purchased - rather than being, as hitherto, simply decommissioned and scrapped. /3

#StandWithUkraine️
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jan 20
While Germany has recently provided significant help to Ukraine, Berlin has also significant historical responsibility vis-a-vis Kyiv. In 1941-44, Germany devastated Ukraine. Since 2014, Berlin has indirectly helped Moscow to devastate Ukraine,.../1
@DUHK_2020 @DGO_Berlin @dgapev
@DUHK_2020 @DGO_Berlin @dgapev @Konflikt_Sicher @FiS_Heidelberg @VitscheBerlin @StimmeUkraine @GermanyinUA @UKRinDEU @DUF_Forum @DerDuod @GERonOstpolitik @VHDtweets ...with its long-lasting energy and modernization partnerships with Putin's regime. To permit other Europeans to give their German tanks to Ukraine is the least what Berlin can, in view of such responsibility, do today for Kyiv. /END
#StandWithUkraine #Vergangenheitsbewältigung
@threadreaderapp #unroll
Read 9 tweets

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