2/ Prigozhin announced on May 7 that he had obtained a document from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that promised to supply Wagner forces with the ammunition and weapons necessary to maintain offensive operations in Bakhmut.
3/ Prigozhin has not published the official document and ISW cannot verify Prigozhin’s claims at this time. The Russian MoD likely has not fundamentally changed its intention of deprioritizing offensive operations & conserving munitions across the theater, a we recently assessed.
4/ Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely effectively blackmailed the Russian MoD into allocating resources to Wagner forces in Bakhmut by threatening to pull Kadyrov’s Chechen forces from other parts of the theater to relieve Wagner forces in Bakhmut.
5/ Prigozhin also claimed that the MoD gave Wagner complete freedom of operations in Bakhmut and appointed Army General Sergey Surovikin as an intermediary between the MoD and Wagner.
6/ Such actions would indicate that Gerasimov and possibly Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu lack the ability to command Prigozhin and Kadyrov as subordinates but must instead negotiate with them as peers.
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#Putin is attempting to use the #Moscow#VictoryDay parade to show #Russia’s continued influence in Central Asia but the late announcement of Central Asian leaders’ attendance likely indicates their reticence to show direct & public support of the war.🧵⬇️isw.pub/UkrWar050823
2/ Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon are reportedly attending the #VictoryDay parade in #Moscow on May 9.
3/ #Kremlin-affiliated news outlet Vedemosti reported Japarov’s visit to #Moscow for #VictoryDay on April 23, while Russian media reported Tokayev’s, Mirziyoyev’s, and Rakhmon’s visits on May 8, only one day before the #VictoryDayParade in Moscow.
2/ #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky claimed on May 7 that 1,552 people (including 632 children, 145 patients from neuropsychiatric centers, and 10 people with limited mobility) have relocated from areas included in evacuation orders.
3/ Russian forces and occupation authorities are setting conditions to make life unbearable in occupied #Zaporizhia Oblast to accelerate forceful evacuations.
#Gerasimov's apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
2/ ISW has assessed that the RU military command had likely recently decided to reprioritize efforts & resource allocation to prepare to receive potential UKR counteroffensive operations but did not set conditions to appease Prigozhin/offset Wagner’s likely degradation in Bakhmut
3/ The subsequent upheaval over the de-prioritization of Bakhmut and the Russian military command's reversal on supplying Wagner is likely to undermine this theater-wide effort.
Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within #Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack southwest of #Avdiivka. isw.pub/UkrWar050623
3/ Geolocated footage published on April 30 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely conducted a limited counterattack north of Vodyane (7km southwest of #Avdiivka) and made marginal gains in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar050623
Russian forces made additional gains within #Bakhmut as of May 5.
Geolocated footage published on May 5 shows that Russian forces have advanced in northwestern Bakhmut towards #Khromove (directly west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar050523
2/ Additional geolocated imagery posted on May 4 shows a destroyed Ukrainian bridge over the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal west of #Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces blew up the bridge, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces struck an unspecified bridge near Chasiv Yar.
Russian occupation authorities announced the forced removal of 70,000 civilians in occupied #Zaporizhia Oblast to areas deeper in the Russian-occupied rear under the guise of evacuations. isw.pub/UkrWar050523
2/ Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials said on May 5 that RU authorities will conduct a partial evacuation of 70K UKR civilians from 18 settlements along the southern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir and along Russian ground lines of communications ~20-40 km from the front line.
3/ The officials claimed that authorities have already begun evacuating civilians from the Polohy Raion to Berdyansk.