Thread by @GI_TOC

🔴 We're live!

📣 Join us for "The Russo-Ukrainian war and the illegal arms trade" with @MarkGaleotti, @scrawnya, @Tuesdayjaded and Fedir Sydoruk ⬇️
gitoc.heysummit.com/talks/russia-u…

Follow the conversation on Youtube 👇

“As #Ukraine is united in fighting Russian aggression, #militias have been reigned in and are essentially part of the armed forces. While we’re not seeing weapons proliferation right now, this doesn’t mean the situation will continue when the fighting stops", explains @scrawnya.

"Before the full scale invasion, there were considerable difficulties in getting some of the volunteer militias to give up their weapons. That is a situation that is highly likely to return, but they can be avoided", @scrawnya highlights.

Read for more 👇
globalinitiative.net/analysis/russi…

"Currently, the war has had two effects on #weapons proliferation:

1⃣ Unified the non-state groups
2⃣ Disrupted traditional #trafficking routes"

Hear more from @scrawnya and the rest of the panel ⤵️
gitoc.heysummit.com/talks/russia-u…

@MarkGaleotti highlights, "The preconditions for an outflow when the guns fall silent are all there. There is an estimated 7 million illegal or unregistered firearms. There will be large numbers of demobilised fighters and #organizedcrime networks looking to monetize weapons."

What can #Ukraine do to prevent arms proliferation? @MarkGaleotti points to five issues...

🔴 Legal reform
🔴 Accounting and inventory
🔴 Amnesty and buy-back schemes
🔴 Measures to counter corruption and police reform
🔴 Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration strategy.

How can the international community support #Ukraine and the issue of proliferation?

@MarkGaleotti highlights four key areas:
1⃣ Capacity building
2⃣ Cooperation and control on and beyond the border
3⃣ Rule of law environment
4⃣ Assisting regional cooperation

"Our fieldwork in the south at the ports - the main smuggling hubs in #Ukraine - shows that the actors are back and waiting for the end of the war to get the flows going again. The danger is already there", stresses Fedir Sydoruk, Field Coordinator for our Ukrainian observatory.

“There are a lot of illegal weapons coming in to #Ukraine. One of the mechanisms is using volunteer groups to bring them in. When the war ends, that mechanism could be used to get the #weapons out.”

Watch for more from Fedir Sydoruk 👇

“We are not seeing any signs of the #Ukrainian government thinking strategically, and even tactically, about what to do with all the #weapons after the war ends", explains Fedir Sydoruk.