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Andrea Stricker Profile picture
@StrickerNonpro
May 10 • 4 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
New @FDD memo out today ahead of next week's Chemical Weapons Convention review conference @OPCW.

Syria's suspension two years ago has been positive for the organization. Member states must next turn to giving Russia an ultimatum for compliance.🧵
fdd.org/analysis/2023/…
#OPCW member states voted in April 2021 to suspend #Syria’s voting rights & privileges, the first suspension of its kind, holding Damascus to account for prolonged non-compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention. 1/
The #OPCW has functioned more smoothly since it suspended #Syria because #Russia obstructs routine business less frequently than in the past when it did so to protect its client in Damascus. 2/
Voting patterns over the past two years show that the obstructionist coalition — led by #Russia, #China, and #Iran — has tried to prevent the #OPCW from holding violators accountable or conducting routine business.

However, Washington and its partners are fighting back. 3/

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More from @StrickerNonpro

Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Nov 14, 2022
Analysis of the IAEA's latest report on Iran's NPT compliance with @TheGoodISIS:

🧵Our recommendation: Due to Iran’s prolonged, ongoing lack of cooperation, the IAEA Board of Governors should pass a resolution condemning Iran’s non-cooperation and refer the issue to the UNSC.
1) For four years, the IAEA has been investigating the presence of man-made uranium particles at three Iranian sites.
2) Earlier, the IAEA sought information about nuclear material and activities at a fourth site. In March 2022, the IAEA found Iran in breach of its safeguards obligations for failing to declare its use of nuclear material at the fourth site.
Read 13 tweets
Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Apr 29, 2022
Happy 25th anniversary of the entry into force of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)! The CWC & its implementing body, @OPCW have been successful at dismantling 99% of chemical weapons stockpiles, instituting oversight over facilities & chemicals. Yet the CWC is under threat.
Russia, Syria, and North Korea have used chemical weapons over the past decade. China and Iran may still have undeclared CW programs. The State Department has concerns about an ISIS program.
.@OPCW, three revisionist member states — China, Iran, and Russia — parties to the convention which hold voting rights, have continued their practice of opposing decisions that would uphold the CWC and attempted to stymie routine organizational business.
Read 12 tweets
Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Apr 19, 2022
Working on an update that tracks results of OPCW decisions put to a vote from 2018-2022 & have some data on adverse votes and problematic abstentions in the Conference of States Parties.

Who is causing the most trouble? Let us explore...
Coming in with the most adverse votes by far out of 21 possible votes are:

China, Iran, & Russia (the usual three) (21 votes);

Belarus, Nicaragua, & Tajikistan (20);

Bolivia, Cuba, & Kazakhstan (18);

Myanmar & Syria (latter suspended from votes in April 2021) (17);
Lao, Uzbekistan, & Venezuela (16);

Sudan (14);

Armenia, Burundi, & Zimbabwe (13);

Kyrgyzstan & South Africa (12);

Pakistan (11); and

Palestinian Authority (10).
Read 7 tweets
Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Apr 18, 2022
Iran confirms it is splitting centrifuge manufacturing between two new underground sites, fortified against sabotage & military strikes.

"We moved an important part of the machines & transferred the rest to Natanz and Isfahan,” said AEOI spox Kamalvandi. apnews.com/article/europe…
Kamalvandi also "reiterated Iran’s stance that Tehran will not provide data" to the UN nuclear watchdog from video cameras at both sites if the West does not lift sanctions.
What this means: With Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing capabilities going underground, and absent international monitoring, there is no assurance that Tehran is not diverting equipment for a clandestine breakout to atomic weapons.
Read 6 tweets
Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Oct 5, 2021
[Thread] 1/ @OPCW Exec. Council-98, U.S. & 44 other countries requested clarification from #Russia regarding its compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention #CWC, under article IV, para 2, more than a year after Moscow's attack on @navalny. state.gov/u-s-leads-effo…
2/ This is not the suspension ultimatum @NatSecAnthony & I recommended, but may be part of a medium-to-long-term effort to build a case on Russia's #CWC non-compliance & muster political will for eventual suspension, if compliance is not forthcoming. thehill.com/opinion/intern…
3/ After Russia's attack in the UK in 2018, which resulted in several injured & one dead British mother of three, and the brazen attack against Navalny in Aug. 2020, the international community is showing Moscow it cannot escape accountability. independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/…
Read 7 tweets
Andrea Stricker Profile picture
Apr 13, 2021
Only thing that didn’t “work” about max pressure was it wasn’t correctly framed as a long-term effort to contain the regime in Iran’s aggression, push for changes in behavior, and give the Iranian people tools to demand better. Sanctions pressure clearly worked on the economy.
Claiming the main objective was to get a stronger nuclear deal provided ammunition for critics to call the policy “discredited” and a “total failure” after just two years and change, with oil sanctions in place for only part of that period.
Meanwhile, the economic facts show tremendous leverage for U.S. and allies — yes, leverage — to obtain concessions across many fronts if the regime wanted to remain in power. Either way, Tehran would be more contained and weakened over time to carry out its malign policies.
Read 5 tweets

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