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May 20 7 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
"It's going to have a terrible effect on morale for the Russian forces, officers, and commanders who are going to be operating within #Ukraine."

@TheStudyofWar #Russia analyst @georgewbarros spoke with @insidermildef about the impact of #StormShadow missiles on Russian tactics:
2/ "#Ukraine used the HIMARS to degrade the effectiveness of #Russia's battlefield tactic, which depended heavily on Moscow's ability to stage massive amounts of artillery shells near the front line to sustain a high rate of fire, [@georgewbarros] said.
3/ "To mitigate their new problem, Russian forces had to move their ammunition back outside the range of the HIMARS to prevent it from being destroyed."
4/ "Barros said the implication is that Russia's tactic 'will be reduced even further' because it will require the Russians to undertake even more stringent sustainment and protection measures to avoid [Storm Shadow's] long range."
5/ "This means pushing ammunition depots and command and control efforts even deeper into occupied territory and away from the front lines."
6/ "Beyond forcing the Russians to once again try to figure out how to protect key positions from a long-range strike capability, Ukraine could use its Storm Shadow missiles to instill a fresh sense of fear into Moscow's commanders who previously thought they were out of range."
7/ "[...] Russian commanders now understand that Ukraine has the potential capacity to deliver a warhead right to their location [...] The more that these commanders are exposed to Ukrainian fires, I expect their survivability to decrease.', Barros said." businessinsider.com/russia-adapted…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 22
🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123
2/ ISW assessed that #Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight through #Bakhmut City.
3/ #Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for #Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight.
Read 9 tweets
May 22
#Ukrainian military sources reported that #Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around #Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of #Wagner forces in Bakhmut. (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar052123 Image
2/ The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated on May 20 that the brigade’s counterattacks have expanded the Ukrainian salient in the #Bakhmut area to 1,750 meters wide by 700 meters deep in an unspecified area.
3/ Geolocated footage shows the brigade striking unspecified Russian forces south of Klishchiivka (7km SW of #Bakhmut), and engaging with the Russian 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet) northeast of Bohdanivka (5km NW of Bakhmut).
Read 6 tweets
May 22
#Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern #Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgment that #Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut if not all of it. Image
2/ These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in #Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. isw.pub/UkrWar052123
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed #WagnerGroup forces raising #Russian and #Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost #Bakhmut.
Read 6 tweets
May 21
Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if #Wagner mercenaries remain in #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to transfer airborne, motorized rifle, and special forces elements to reinforce the #Bakhmut flanks even as Wagner forces remain in Bakhmut City.
3/ The UK MoD also reported that the Russian military command likely redeployed several battalions to reinforce Bakhmut despite only having a few uncommitted combat units and that this redeployment suggests a substantial commitment to the Bakhmut effort by the Russian leadership.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
Read 7 tweets
May 21
Ukrainian forces are continuing to pressure #Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting is ongoing on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks in the directions of Ivanivske, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar052023 Image
2/ Ukrainian forces reported on May 19 that they have recaptured approximately four square kilometers of additional territory near #Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue conducting localized attacks near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ #Prigozhin’s claimed capture of the remaining blocks in #Bakhmut is not strategically significant as it will not allow exhausted Wagner or conventional Russian forces to establish a meaningful springboard for further offensive operations.
Read 5 tweets

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