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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 22 • 6 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Ukrainian military sources reported that #Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around #Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of #Wagner forces in Bakhmut. (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar052123 Image
2/ The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated on May 20 that the brigade’s counterattacks have expanded the Ukrainian salient in the #Bakhmut area to 1,750 meters wide by 700 meters deep in an unspecified area.
3/ Geolocated footage shows the brigade striking unspecified Russian forces south of Klishchiivka (7km SW of #Bakhmut), and engaging with the Russian 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet) northeast of Bohdanivka (5km NW of Bakhmut).
4/ RU conventional forces such as the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are failing to regain lost positions & respond to UKR counterattacks on #Bakhmut’s flanks, actions that are consistent w/ ISW’s assessment that UKR forces regained the tactical initiative around Bakhmut.
5/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian conventional forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations south of #Ivanivske (6km west of #Bakhmut), in the direction of Hryhorivka (about 6km NW of Bakhmut), and in the direction of Bila Hora (12km SW of Bakhmut).
6/ Russian milbloggers also noted the failed Russian assaults on #Bakhmut’s flanks. isw.pub/UkrWar052123; storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 23
#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in #Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months. isw.pub/UkrWar052223
2/ Prigozhin claimed on May 21 – one day after he declared victory in Bakhmut City – that Wagner forces will give Russian conventional forces control of Bakhmut on May 25 and completely withdraw from the entire frontline by June 1 to rest and reconstitute over a two-month period.
3/ #Prigozhin also claimed that any reports of Wagner assault operations during that two-month period are fake unless he says otherwise.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 23
NEW: Elements of the all-Russian pro-#Ukrainian #Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into #Belgorod Oblast, #Russia on May 22.

More on the raid in tonight's assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar052223 Image
2/ Russian sources reported on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK & LSR consisting of several armored vehicles crossed the international border & captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of #Belgorod Oblast within 600m of the border with Sumy Oblast.
3/ Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively)...
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 22
🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123
2/ ISW assessed that #Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight through #Bakhmut City.
3/ #Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for #Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 22
#Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern #Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgment that #Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut if not all of it. Image
2/ These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in #Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. isw.pub/UkrWar052123
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed #WagnerGroup forces raising #Russian and #Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost #Bakhmut.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 21
Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if #Wagner mercenaries remain in #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to transfer airborne, motorized rifle, and special forces elements to reinforce the #Bakhmut flanks even as Wagner forces remain in Bakhmut City.
3/ The UK MoD also reported that the Russian military command likely redeployed several battalions to reinforce Bakhmut despite only having a few uncommitted combat units and that this redeployment suggests a substantial commitment to the Bakhmut effort by the Russian leadership.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 21
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
Read 7 tweets

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