Thread by @TheStudyofWar

🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1660437746446393344

2/ ISW assessed that #Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight through #Bakhmut City.

3/ #Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for #Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight.

4/ #Wagner forces began showing signs that they would be unable to pursue offensive operations beyond #Bakhmut City from at least late December 2022.

5/ A Russian milblogger claimed on May 21 that #Wagner forces have not directly attacked Khromove and Ivanivske — settlements immediately west and southwest of #Bakhmut — since capturing Bakhmut.”

6/ Russian regular forces situated on #Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks are also unlikely to push west towards Kostyantynivka or north towards Slovyansk amid Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area any time soon.

7/ Russian conventional forces will be even more unlikely to pursue offensive operations if #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin delivers on his stated intent to withdraw #Wagner personnel from #Bakhmut City on May 25.

8/ It is currently unclear if #Prigozhin will actually withdraw his forces from #Bakhmut, but some milbloggers are speculating that Prigozhin will commit #Wagner to a different “critical” frontline at the end of the month.

9/ Russian forces faced a similar culmination following highly attritional infantry attacks in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in June–July 2022. isw.pub/UkrWar052123