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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 25

1. Russia continues to react to the Belgorod incursion along with Ukrainian shaping operations by rushing to reinforce both the area on the border near Belgorod and in Bakhmut due to Wagner forces abrupt decision to withdraw after Prigozhin warned the flanks were collapsing.

2. The #FreedomOfRussiaLegion and #RussianVolunteersCorps held a presser where they claimed all strategic goals were accomplished. They stated they have proven a large force from Ukraine could take Belgorod quickly thus forcing the Russian command to redeploy forces from the

3. support in areas where the Ukrainian offensive could be soon expected. Redeployment puts Russian forces in the open and more at risk. DPR forces in the city of #Khartsyzk were being deployed to Bakhmut to replace Wagner and Ukraine attacked with them with HIMARS.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 24

1. The operation around #Belgorod is reported to have been more extensive than originally reported. The #RussianVolunteerCorps and #FreedomOfRussiaLegion may have withdrawn back to Ukraine but the incursion was on a larger scale than previously reported.

2. The original incursion on the left of this map shows the fallback positions prior to withdrawal, with the Russian mechanized unit pushing forward. To the east, the anti-Putin forces also pressed on two other lines of advance. Because Russia has no reserve forces, detachments

3. of FSB security forces moved to counter but only after their HQ was attacked by drones. Reports are the FSB did not fare well. These two eastern incursions may have been brief but apparently accomplished a Ukrainian strategic objective of forcing Russian commanders to rapidly

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 24

1. We made the same mistake with China we made with Russia. Our IC's blindness about China in the mid-1980s was repeated when the Soviet Union collapsed. We had the power to make being part of our economic world require liberal democratic principals. Barring that, a polite

2. but firm denial of advanced technology or markets should have been the stick to the carrot of the US economy. But as Chairman Mao warned, the "silver coated bullets of capitalism" made us blind to what they both had in store. We craved the Chinese labor and consumer markets

3. and the abundant Russian natural resources. And when the mortgage crisis brought the western economies to their knees, dirty Russian money was freely available but it came with a special price: Corruption that is so pervasive to have even infected the NY FBI.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 23

1. I recall the Russian state was overthrown once in history. A foolish #Tsar chose to support his cousin and joined a war against another cousin. The Tsar was not a very good commander and the war did not go well for Russia. Eventually people rose up and shot the Tsar.

2. Today that history may be repeating. It started with artillery strikes on the area of a Russian border control point attacked from #Ukrainian territory by approximately 50 #Russiannationals. After securing the control point approximately 500 more Russian nationals moved in and

3. began taking towns until they reached #Grayvoron where they were eventually met by Russian forces trying to halt the advance. The invading force started with one #tank an #IFV and several #Humvees and also captured vehicles in Russia.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 22

1. In second E. Jean Carroll case that was removed from state court, Ms Carroll filed a motion for leave to amend her complaint to add the defamatory statements made after verdict and harmonize pleading with jury findings. Link to redline. timinhonolulu.com/2023/05/22/1-i…

2. The proposed first amended complaint adopts the jury finding of sexual assault that globally replaces the rape allegations.

#45 is about to learn a new legal term: collateral estoppel.

3. The courts have developed doctrines that are meant to prevent taking two-bites of the apple. When an issue has been decided, was actually litigated, is necessary to the judgment and between the same parties or those in privity, that fact is decided and can't be relitigated.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 22

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1660697664495943682

1. We understandably view the term propaganda in a negative light. But when I studied it many years ago, it was defined by type. This is the good type. Truthful official statement that has a defined purpose or goal. And with a hint that something may be coming. Perhaps very soon.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1660697664495943682

2. I remain of the view, reported earlier, that the step back from Bakhmut had a clear strategic purpose. Wagner is now able to disengage. The Russian forces rushing to fill the imminent vacuum are all weakening other areas. By reaching out to the individual Russian fighter

3. with options that are covered by the Geneva convention, and with the history of Ukrainian AF following the law of armed conflict, even in the face of Russian AF violations, they've set the conditions for mass surrenders. I fall back to my experience in the war to defeat ISIS.

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