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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 24 • 4 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW: Discussions regarding reported Russian losses in #Bakhmut have saturated the pro-war information space & are drowning out any remaining positive informational effect resulting from the city’s capture.

24 May update on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats:
isw.pub/UkrWar052423 ImageImageImageImage
2/ The overall Russian information space response to the capture of #Bakhmut has fixated on attributing responsibility for its capture & speculating on the associated costs of the operation, depriving the Russian MoD of the oxygen necessary to positively frame the city’s capture.
3/ #Prigozhin is likely using his heightened profile following the capture of #Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites.
4/ #Prigozhin is also using the perception that #Wagner is responsible for the capture of #Bakhmut to advocate for a preposterous level of influence over the Russian war effort in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar052423

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 26
#Donetsk Axis Updates:

1. Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around #Bakhmut as #Wagner Group forces reportedly began their withdrawal from frontline areas of the city on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052523 Image
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have shifted their focus to the T0504 Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut and O0506 Khromove-Bakhmut highways and remarked that heavy fighting continues on the flanks of #Bakhmut.
The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are now trying to capture #Ivanivske and #Khromove (3km due west of #Bakhmut).
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 26
#Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 raid.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ Gladkov previously announced the creation of several territorial defense battalions in December 2022, and has likely re-upped discussion of them in response to increased anxiety in border areas following the raid.
3/ A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on May 24 that these battalions have a strong presence but are severely hindered by an inadequate weapons supply.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 26
#Russia and #Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement #Moscow’s de facto military control over #Minsk. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
2/ #Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons to #Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
3/ The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to #Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 25
May 24 Assessment Highlight:

The #Kremlin continues efforts to portray #Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships. 1/4

isw.pub/UkrWar052423 Image
#Putin spoke to attendees of the 11th International Meeting of High Representatives for Security Issues in #Moscow on May 24 to deliver rhetoric accusing the West of generating instability & calling on Asian, African, & Latin American states to form a multipolar world order. 2/4
#Putin later attended the Eurasian Economic Forum in #Moscow alongside the presidents of #Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia. Putin also met w/ the president of Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity w/i Bosnia & Herzegovina). 3/4
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 24
The Battle of #Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. The #Kremlin’s fixation with Bakhmut also shows that #Russia has not learned lessons from the first phases of the war. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Bakhmut Retrospective🧵#2:
2/ The Russian military command continued to pursue a relentless assault on #Bakhmut after the city lost its original operational significance and failed to adjust its military objectives appropriately.
3/ The #Kremlin, evidently, chased after any potential victory to generate informational effects and allowed #Prigozhin to expend a large amount of Russian ammo and thousands of prisoner recruits, & then more professional forces to maintain a battle of no operational significance
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 24
The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️ Image
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423 Image
3/ #Russia reprioritized the Battle for #Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line. Wagner began assaults on settlements east and SE of Bakhmut, using Russian-occupied territories as springboards for the attack. Image
Read 12 tweets

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