Thread by @dem_initiatives

The #Kremlin’s push for a “long war” against #Ukraine may have a snowball effect on domestic insurgency within Russia - say experts @PetroBurkovskyi, @t_tarasiuk in the article for @KyivIndependent
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The growth of resistance movements within #Russia, both actual and nominally formed, has been particularly noticeable since 2022. There are sources of serious domestic insurgency in Russia.
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The diversity of the groups’ ideological platforms, variety, and geography speak for the genuity and independence of these anti-Putin groups.
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#Ukraine benefits from the weakening of the Kremlin’s control of the country, but it lacks the resources to stand behind acts like setting fire to military offices in the Russian hinterland or constant railway diversions beyond the immediate proximity of the warzone.
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However, it is difficult to assess the real scale of domestic resistance in Russia. A considerable portion of these groups exist without confirmation of their activities, and much about their leaders, public activity, and foreign representation is unknown.
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On the other hand, the attractiveness of private military companies among Russia’s male population, increasingly dissatisfied with the living conditions and resentful toward #Putin’s corrupt ruling clique, indicates a growing potential for instability.
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It is likely that trained and armed men, some with combat experience or without loyalty to any #Russian authority, whether they be #Putin or #Prigozhin, may defect to such opposition groups.
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The #RDK raids in #Belgorod Oblast have already shown that it could be much easier to wrestle control of Russian cities from the incompetent and corrupt government than to survive assaults in #Donbas.
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