Thread by @andrewmichta

🧵After the thread I posted here where I argued that rather than a new bipolarity the world is tracking for a period of protracted instability and conflict, where regional balancing will be key, I have been asked to explain my argument in more detail. So, a few key points: 1/10

First, we are in a period of considerable uncertainty about relative power distribution worldwide, especially when it comes to where the US and China are in relative terms. We can assess traditional power indices, but we still struggle to assess relative vulnerabilities. 2/10

Second, uncertainty about the relative power balance in the system encourages the key players to assume that we might have already entered a power-transition cycle, and to leverage this opportunity the principal powers become more prone to take risk, fueling conflict. 3/10

Historically, uncertainty about the relative balance of power has driven states to apply pressure first in regions seen as “contestable,” rather than confronting directly another great power. Today, think #Russia attacking #Ukraine; or #China applying pressure on #Taiwan. 4/10

In both cases, the regional power balance in Europe and Asia is being contested by Russia and China, respectively. If they succeed, their regional “wins” will in turn shape the global equation, but likely without eliminating the residual uncertainty about systemic polarity. 5/10

Historically, a global balance of power re-set, i.e., a new polarity established or the pre-existing polarity reaffirmed, has involved a direct confrontation between the principal powers. Examples: WWI, WWII, the Cold War—in each case the great powers were in direct conflict.6/10

A kinetic conflict between the principal great powers has typically accompanied such a structural systemic re-set, but not always. The end of the Cold War, for instance witnessed a fundamental systemic re-set and the fracturing of the Soviet Union without an all-out war. 7/10

However, typically during periods of uncertainty about the overall power distribution in the system, a great power contesting a regional power balance risks triggering a confrontation with another great power; Putin’s miscalculation in #Ukraine is a good example of this. 8/10

As the war in #Ukraine unfolds, developments on the ground will likely lead up to a binary outcome (win/lose), even if intermediary steps (armistice) could materialize. So the outcome in Ukraine will transform the regional balance of power in Europe and reverberate worldwide.9/10

Still, no great power today seems ready for an all-out confrontation (Putin has avoided challenging @NATO directly; China, while asserting its claim to Taiwan, needs more time to prepare.) Absent a miscalculation that leads to escalation—systemic instability will continue.10/End