#OPEC have announced another cut in oil production, to try and resurrect the oil price. A reduction in oil price hits the income for Russia, and it can be devastating for russian revenue.
Russian oil price (quoted as Urals) - is falling fast and is now at or below break even for production cost.
Hellenic Shipping News has quoted $11-$19/bbl shipping costs from the Russian ports to India, and these rates are higher than rates for comparable distances, such as a voyage from the Persian Gulf to Rotterdam.
International trade in small arms for #WarCrimes in #Ukraine is on-going. Here is one such supplier - actively seeking weapons through @telegram using international payment services including… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
4 Shooters - based in Davie, Florida (US)
Equipment and parts for #WarCrime weapons including the KP-9.
2/4 After Russia flattened a residential building in the settlement of Borodianka (Kyiv Oblast) after the Russian bombing of Borodianka on 2 March 2022. Lavrov claimed that Russia "did not attack Ukraine". 🤣😂🤡 On 10 March 2022, Lavrov met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/4 On 20 July 2022, Lavrov publicly confirmed that Russia had as a goal not only to "liberate" the Donbas region, but also to occupy the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and several other territories, supposedly as a response to Ukraine receiving weapons support from… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Casualty disinformation is targeted to both sides of the illegal invasion of Ukraine by the criminal regime of Russia. If you want to understand a layman’s view of how casualties are calculated read on, its a big thread that unpicks the methodology… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/3
Estimating Casualties:
This is harder than estimating equipment losses (which can quickly be verified today with evidence of wrecks and video footage). Historically both sides tend to over-claim, which serves as a strong political gain for their citizens. Secrecy and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/3
The divide in truth exists on both sides. On the Ukrainian side there are cheerleaders who claim the casualty rates are 13 Russians killed for every one Ukrainian in some battles. There are plenty of Twitter examples of cheer leaders - so be on the look-out for them.
2/13 The Russian disinformation narratives are often false, or obscure facts with half-truths and “#whataboutisms” (efforts to respond to an issue by comparing it to a different issue that does not engage with the original one).
3/13 Similar tactics have continued and expanded during the war, pointing to the ongoing evolution of disinformation approaches and constant need to adapt and respond. The UK Government, for example, found that TikTok influencers were being paid to amplify pro-Russian narratives.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/4. #OlegDeripaska (worth $2.9Bn according to Forbes),the founder of #BasicElement the aluminium, construction and energy. In 2008 he was the richest #Oligarch in Russia and the 9th richest in the world. He lost nearly all his assets due to crashing markets and debt, but bounced… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/4. These #Oligarchs made billions from the breakup of the old #SovietUnion, when nationalised industries were privatised and a select few individuals were given large shares in the new companies. Putin is strongly tied to all Oligarchs and has been inews.co.uk/news/long-read…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1/4. The effects of Putin being charged over #WarCrimes by the International Criminal Court #ICC
There is one detail people are passing over in this report, and that is the charges laid against Maria Lvova-Belova for similar charges involving the cnn.com/2023/03/17/eur…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/4. To understand the impacts of these charges, my view is that #Putin will at best be irritated by this event as a demonstration of the West’s hypocrisy and desire for regime change. The adverse affect for the civilised world, is that this event will likely lead to a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/4. Maria Lvova-Belova’s charges will have the biggest impact.
That is because all of these charges are symbolic in reality. The fact that charges and accountability has been extended to a relatively low level politician and bureaucrat is critically important.