🗣 Rob Rosenberger Profile picture
Jun 20 9 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Two years ago on June 14th, Steve Morgan's astronomically large yet unexplained #guesstimate for "the cost of cybercrime" exceeded the U.S. national debt.

This week the national debt officially topped $32 trillion, and the World Bank revised its global GDP projections…
…so let's revisit the #absurdity of Steve Morgan's ✌️predictions✌️ for "the cost of cybercrime."

We'll incorporate the latest numbers from the U.S. gov't debt website and the World Bank's global GDP projections.

Strap in. This absurdity is HUGE.
As I've said before, it amazes me how often Steve Morgan's absurdities #dupe cyber experts like @dralissajay, @WaleMicaiah, @LHMphaphuli, @KenBeattyJr, @eSentire, @LilyLopate, etc. Their gullibility is part and parcel of cybersecurity's "infotainment sub-industry."
This updated chart plots Steve Morgan's asinine #guesstimates against World Bank figures for the 2015-2021 Global Gross Domestic Product and their projections up to 2025. Going onward, these charts show a 2.5% increase from an acceptable 2-3% for a healthy global GDP: ImageImage
Steve Morgan's "global cost of cybercrime" #guesstimates prove astronomical:

In 1½ years, his ✌️prediction✌️ will burn 9.8% of the World Bank's projected global GDP.

Morgan predicts nearly $1 of ✌️cost✌️ for every $10 of gross domestic production FOR THE ENTIRE PLANET: Image
Actually, I should say the World Bank's "currently" projected global GDP. They revise their projections every half-year and highlight the differences--

--unlike Steve Morgan, who claims a perfect prediction track record all the way back to 2015:
Steve Morgan's #guesstimates only extend to 2025. So, let's suppose they stabilize at "$10.5 trillion" from 2026 onward and a healthy global GDP rises 2.5% per year.

Morgan's 16yr tally will INTERSECT the 2030 global GDP line — and his 20yr tally will exceed $160 trillion: ImageImage
Steve Morgan can't avoid the #absurdity of his predictions if he declares "0% growth" from 2026 onward:

It would take ONE HUNDRED YEARS for the global GDP to catch back up to Morgan's "total cost of cybercrime."

That's when they'll both equal $1 QUADRILLION 💸 ImageImageImage
Sadly, too many experts adore Steve Morgan's bullshit predictions. Take, for example, @dralissajay:

She was President Obama's deputy CIO -- and she STILL touts Morgan's 9.80% of global GDP as "the annual loss due to cybercrime" in 1½ years.

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More from @vmyths

Jun 16
So, I'm quietly asked my opinion of @mikko's somewhat ... grandiose claims for artificial general intelligence (AGI) going forward. I invite my questioner to jump in with their own thoughts, but here's mine as cybersecurity's eldest #critic:
My short answer is "I'm okay with anyone making bold claims like this." There's simply no #fearmongering here. @mikko states the obvious and paints a future.

My longer answer centers on the fact @mikko wields a strong character in our industry...
...and it's the type of character I would wish on everyone.

I admit @mikko has a style few can muster. But his character? Every one of us can muster that if we wish!

Imagine a world where we all invite software makers to see their work from...
Read 11 tweets
May 8
He's subtweeting me for all the right reasons -- and phone calls I've been on reveal he's not the only one.

I've gone soft on @CISAgov in appreciation for the fact they're not like their direct descendant, FBI NIPC.

I've gone soft on @CISAJen because she's not like her…
…predecessor, Michael Vatis.

More specifically, though, I've gone soft on @CISAJen because she's building the right relationships with @DragosInc and @RobertMLee, who himself will play the role of "Daddy Warbucks" in the first true #cyberwar.

Everything @ErrataRob subtweeted…
…is correct. When I say "it's getting better," that doesn't mean it's *good* now.

CISA severely lacks #critics, skeptics, and historians. Their board-level guidance comes from people who, among other things, wrote the book "This Is How They Tell Me The World Ends"…
Read 7 tweets
Mar 3
I agree 💯 with @mikko here.


--he might be missing the Pentagon's perspective. So, let me fill y'all in.

Tanks, missiles, etc. are #classic: they deploy everywhere to strike anything. Need to put a hole in something? Tank. Obliterate? Missile. Crater? Bomb…
…but a cyber weapon is #unique as @mikko said. It deploys against a particular version(s) of Windows, or Linux, or even #antivirus software.

At this point you'd be totally correct to say "Rob, you can't drop a 30lb incendiary bomb to take out an underground bunker!" But the… Image
…issue here is "classic."

In WWII, we dropped 30lb incendiary bombs across Germany to demoralize and kill their civilian populations.

Now, in #cyber, you can issue an update, change a setting, even retreat from the Internet. In the real world, though…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
"#Antivirus software is a future Trojan horse."

There. I said it.

"But Rob! You were defending Kaspersky just a few days ago!"


I've fought a crude #UrbanLegend in our industry that's simmered since the FBI threw a shit-fit over something they've never proven.
Worse, our own global community has never proved it -- and we've got every good reason to prove it if true.

But hey, our industry turned the tables on Kaspersky the day his dictator launched a genocide campaign.

Because we're just like that. We've always been like that.
That's why our industry's #ThoughtLeaders can dance on a pinhead: because IT'S EASY!

The logic in the back of their minds is simple: "Kaspersky is a Russian billionaire who craves genocide in Ukraine and does anything Putin asks. I must destroy Kaspersky with all my willpower."
Read 10 tweets
Feb 28
Steve Morgan continues his unashamed touting of absurd guesstimates (see below).

So, let's chart his multi-trillion annual "global cost of cybercrime" as the individual cost to every man, woman, and child on Earth:

cc: @sawaba @KimZetter @shanvav @JMBooyah @nicoleperlroth Image
Steve Morgan's guesstimates stretch from 2015 to the end of 2025. This chart shows how, in less than two years, everyone on Earth will be on the hook for $8,441 of his "global cost of cybercrime."

And that's just by 2025! It gets WAY worse as you project a few years forward... Image
"$10.5 trillion" exceeds $1,000 annually for only 8+ billion people on Earth. It's simple math.

When we project the 20th year of Steve Morgan's absurd guesstimates, we see the "global cost of cybercrime" per capita in 2034 will reach $19,507 for every man, woman, and child: Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24
Today marks the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine #cyberwar that killed <checks Microsoft's & Mandiant's reports> no one.

Let's go over last year's mass cyberwar #panic. We'll begin with one of the earliest calls to #boycott @Kaspersky:
There was an immediate feeling that everyone must cancel all Kaspersky subscriptions, as if customers -- especially corporate clients -- had a competitor's product waiting in the wings to replace it in some trivial fashion:
Likewise, there was an immediate plea to [translated] "remove Kaspersky from your PC. Now. Immediately." Again, as if customers -- especially corporate clients -- could do it trivially and without serious consequences:
Read 36 tweets

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