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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Jun 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Call it a hunch, more than anything, but I doubt Lukashenko was central in the way he described.

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8
Pro-Russian sources have reported a significant #Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhzhya region, including ground attacks against a series of villages situated south and southwest of Orikhiv - such as Lobkove Image
The pro-Russian sources are reporting several offensive axes in this area, claiming these attacks were repelled (as they always do).

Let's wait until there is actual evidence, but this area has a lot of strategic value.
#Breaking RIA Novosti now confirms the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to advance in the Zaporizhzhya region, claiming that Ukraine is sending large amount of forces and military equipment in this sector of the front.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 6
Blowing up the dam does makes sense (militarily) for Russia, given that most of the line of defense was not really along the coast of the Dnipro, but south of it.

But one critical point that I think hasn't been raised, is the message blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam sends >>
Now that a river-crossing operation is out of the question, the only other axis to recapture the remaining part of Kherson for Ukraine is through Zaporizhzhya
This includes Enerhodar, where the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant is located.

The message Moscow may be sending is "we were ready to blow up the dam, we're ready to do the same with the Zaporizhzhya power plant".
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Mar 17
Today is the day!
I will publish the video analysis of why I think #Russia lost the battle for #Kyiv this afternoon
It took me quite a while and I missed my (self-imposed) deadline by a long shot (I had to learn all of the skills needed to make the video, from editing, making motion graphics, to filming narrating - lot to improve there), but it's finally ready.
Read 9 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Mar 17
#Breaking Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit #Russia from March 20 to 22 at the invitation of Russian President Putin - Chinese Foreign Ministry
This comes as Ukraine is also negotiating a possible meeting between Xi Jinping and Zelenskyy according to Mykhailo Podolyak
Putin and Xi will discuss development of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation during the talks according to the Kremlin
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Mar 15
There are rumours that a serious incident was thwarted in northern #Israel
Netanyahu is being briefed by the Defense Minister - a gag order has been issued.
Other reports suggest it may be tied to a blast that occurred on a highway in northern Israel, on Monday, seriously wounding a man.
Read 4 tweets

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