Thread by @dhavalkulkarni

The latest episode of #Maharashtra’s Game of Thrones saw #AjitPawar split the #NCP & become the deputy chief minister. Let us analyse the impact on the major players in the game
#SharadPawar #MaharashtraPolitics #NCPSplits #politics #BJP #ShivSena #DevendraFadnavis #EknathShinde

Eknath Shinde:

The ruling coalition in Maharashtra is now dealing with a problem of plenty. It now includes three parties, the #BJP, chief minister #EknathShinde’s #ShivSena, and now #AjitPawar and his men from the #NCP.

Ajit Pawar’s defection comes as a setback to Shinde as now, the BJP has a more dependable ally in Maharashtra. This has significantly reduced the elbow space available to Shinde.

Attempts by the Shinde camp to flex their muscles by issuing advertisements claiming that Shinde was popular than deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis will also be constrained. Speaker Rahul Narwekar (BJP) is hearing disqualification petitions filed against Shinde &his MLAs

BJP leaders admit that the central leadership was in doubt about Shinde’s ability to deliver when it came to the 2024 Lok Sabha and the state assembly polls. With its 48 Lok Sabha seats, Maharashtra is crucial for the BJP to return to power for an unprecedented 3rd term

Despite walking away with 40 of the 56 Shiv Sena MLAs and the name and symbol of the official Shiv Sena, Shinde has no party organisation to boast of. The rank-and-file are seen as being loyal to Uddhav Thackeray.

The party’s core Maharashtrian vote base and even sections of the minorities like Muslims have seemingly coalesced around Thackeray. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and by extension, the MVA, are also seen as having gained public sympathy, much to Shinde’s chagrin.

An excuse given by Shinde and his men for breaking ranks with the MVA was Ajit’s overbearing style of functioning. They claimed that Ajit, who was deputy chief minister and finance minister in the MVA, was partial towards the NCP when it came to distribution of funds.

It may be déjà vu for Shinde with indications that his new deputy Ajit will get the finance portfolio again!

While Shinde’s MLAs were eagerly awaiting an expansion of the cabinet for months, their counterparts from the Ajit Pawar camp have stolen a march over them.

Shinde may now get a smaller number of the 14 vacant berths in the council of ministers, while was said to be angling for power sharing on equal terms.

A group led by Ajit Pawar was said to be straining to realign the NCP with the BJP. His uncle and party president Sharad Pawar announced his surprise intent to quit as the national president.

As his party rallied around him, Ajit seemed to be increasingly isolated. Pawar eventually withdrew his decision, indicating that he had won this round.

Ajit threw his hat into the ring for an organisational post.

Ajit was said to be eyeing the position of the state party president, which is held by Jayant Patil, who is in his uncle’s camp. Pawar was reluctant to give his nephew a greater say in the party, which is said to have proved the last straw on the camel’s back.

Ajit and his band were said to be under pressure from the central investigating agencies. NCP leaders like Praful Patel and Hasan Mushrif, were under the scanner for alleged money laundering. This may have hastened #AjitPawar's decision.

This defection will also water-down brand Ajit. Though he projects himself as an alpha male who is upfront to the point of being abrasive, the perception that he capitulated under pressure may take some sheen off this image.

Incidentally, late last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had attacked the NCP for graft and pointed to allegations of corruption in irrigation projects when the party held the water resources portfolio.

#SharadPawar said this had increased the anxieties of party leaders who were already under the ED’s scanner. Fingers had been pointed at Ajit, who was the water resources minister for a significant time in the Congress- NCP regime in Maharashtra, and later at his aide

Sunil Tatkare, who succeeded him, in the alleged irrigation scam. Tatkare, the NCP MP from Raigad, has now joined Ajit’s rebellion.

Devendra Fadnavis:

Maharashtra will have two deputy chief ministers for the 1st time in its history. Already smarting at being relegated to Shinde’s number two, Fadnavis will now have to share space with Ajit.

Fadnavis and the BJP leadership will have to contend with unease in the BJP, especially among its veterans, over newcomers and the party’s allies being given prominence.

Many of the #NCP’s legislators and leaders are local satraps and have a strong presence in their constituencies, which may bolster the #BJP’s chances in the Lok Sabha polls in #Maharashtra.

MVA:

The development comes as a setback to the MVA and may also erode voters’ confidence in the MVA. However, its leaders claim the sympathy for them will increase as it is perceived that the BJP used strong-arm methods to split the #ShivSena & now the #NCP.

Sharad Pawar:

#SharadPawar is one of the most polarising leaders in #Maharashtra & invokes extreme reactions. But even his critics admit that Pawar, a cancer survivor, is a “fighter.”

Pawar is seen as one of the fulcrums of opposition unity efforts.

However, his admission that he was on board during the NCP’s efforts to strike an understanding with the BJP after the 2019 elections, which culminated in Ajit entering into a short-lived understanding with the BJP, counters his claims so far. It has also dented his credibility